Should You Worry About a Housing Crash in 2024? with Dave Meyer of @biggerpockets

House hacking is for single young males. And messy ones willing to live the frat lifestyle. I hate when I hear about "HoUsEhAcKiNg!" Nobody also mentions how duplexes are never in nice, safe areas.

I think another problem with inventory is the fact that we have much more single people homes instead of married couples. Causing there to be a need of more housing.

Very good conversation with experience involved

Love this collab!!

Maybe investors should stop buying SFRs and only buy multi-family units. Let families buy their first homes without having to compete with investors with bigger pockets.

When he said "dollar cost averaging" and "don't time the market" I swear I almost lost it from hearing the echo 😂

One thing they are ignoring is unemployment rates and the effect on home ownership turnover. We’ve had sub 4% unemployment for over 2 straight years now. The average closer to 6%. The economy doesn’t have to tank for unemployment to go back closer to average. With 161m employees in the US, even a 2% increase in unemployment is 3.2 million lost jobs.

If those people now can’t pay their mortgages that is going to spike the inventory of homes for sale a LOT which will have significant downward pressure on prices.

Use me as an "I'm just as excited as Bo" button

There's a 250k shipping container home near me. If you think that's normal, you're delusional.

I think affordability will come back when the short-term rental market gets wrecked.

@MoneyGuyShow would you recommend having your primary residence paid for before looking into putting a down payment on a rental property?

10 million new people in the US in 3 years will put a lot of strain on housing. That’s almost as many people in Pennsylvania

The crossover I didn't know I needed. Great episode!

Never heard of this guy but I'm definitely going to check out his channel. Seems to have a good head on his shoulders

Pent-up demand and low affordability puts pressure on prices to come down. The supply is currently holding up the process

Real estate prices are devastatingly high and they won’t come down. New buyers have to either increase income or lower living standards. For millennials that grew up middle class suburbs this means they might have less house than their parents at the same age. Sad 😞. I’m glad we bought our first home in 2020 at lower prices/rate. Upgrade not in the cards until rates go down

What a great show today.

I mean.. if he was your only friend investing in real estate relatively cheaply, he might have been your smartest friend..🤷‍♂️

Aside from learning a great deal about real estate investing, I'm smarter—just in general—from listening to the three of you talk. Thanks!

Great convo! Thanks!

I want to see Bo's notes from this interview

What he's mentions is exactly my reasoning for buying a home. Right now I'm looking for sub 6% mortgage, thats my number for the rates. I'm in a good financial position to put 20% down on a new house and then sale my current house, but I want a "livable" percentage.

Long time listener, first time commenter. I enjoy everything y'all put out. I'm watching from Canada and while most of what y'all are saying is applicable, some of it is different because of the tax laws and federal policies. Real Estate Investors have been cashflow negative in Canada since about 2016 or so. I think the market in Vancouver (where I live) and Toronto are miles more disconnected from incomes than anywhere in United States.

All I can control is building wealth in a responsible way through low cost index funds and living below my means. Thank you again Bo and Brian for all the content y'all are putting out, keep it up. Best wishes from Vancouver Canada.

loved this episode

Great show! Tons of good info

You know what would lower prices AND increase supply...if these damn real estate investors stopped buying all the houses!

Have some ethics boys and stop promoting this.

Being a landlord is very profitable but we have an aging population. I've never seen this many people get free homes.

People say it's just as cheap to own as it is to rent. This week my coworker was complaining about her rent. She told me she pays $450. I was speechless. It's like 1980 prices.

Fascinating, thank you.

appreciation historically is around 4-5% annually not 2-3.

This was great! I always liked Dave Meyer best of all the Bigger Pockets personalities because he is so data driven. The others tend to be "change your life" or "become an entrepreneur" which is fine, but more psychological/emotional than rational/data based.

Two variables impacting the housing market not discussed are: baby boomers will reach peak 65 this year; and, institutional investing in single-family residential market. The big unknown is what will those peak 65 baby boomers do. Institutional ownership of single-family residential is projected to be around 40% in the next few years, and I suspect that they will be scooping up all those baby boomer houses for rent. The prevalance of institutional investors in single-family residential requires new regulation. I also think that if you own more than two homes, you need to be taxed at commercial real estate property tax rates rather than residential rates. Real estate investors are business owners and ought to be treated as such on what is really commercial property just like any apartment complex or building. This will especially be true as institutional investors scoop up more single-family residential homes and take over the residential market.

You have good hardwood, I'm in. I know, I KNOW the dogs are going to tear it up, but my goodness it is nice to move into it looking nice. We should have bought more rugs...

Lol, some of my parents friends invested there pensions into some property in the early 2000's and the first few years it did great, then they had a few bad renters and then 2008 happened and they ended up having to sell them at a big loss. Saying it's only gone down a couple of times in the past is also delusional as in the past the economies in the west have been getting stronger since the great depression whereas now we are clearly in decline, so the next 100 years will be nothing like the past 100 years.

Other than owning your primary residence, buying up housing and putting up for rent so wagie slave zoomers can pay your mortgage is not helping anyone. You are actively destroying society for your own selfish benefit. That's exactly what the boomers have done.

These are all fine predictions. Of course the pent up demand is going to swallow up any supply uptick when rates come down. It's hard to see a major change coming, let alone a crash. Buy when you need to and it makes sense for you. And take all predictions with a grain of salt.

Anyone who graduates and has the money to immediately buy real estate, even with partners, is not someone who is in touch with the vast majority of people. Meanwhile the rest of people graduated, had mountains of student debt and no job.

Understood that this is an episode mostly about investing. I have a related and follow up question I’d like to see addressed on this show. What about those people, there are literally thousands in every city , who had similar bad experiences to what you described about your college days and the state department, kids who didn’t leave good impressions with their landlords but have since cleaned up their act and need a second chance? Dealing with this issue now with a family member, who will make an excellent renter at this point but a year ago it was a different story. These guys are stuck in between having a bad history with a landlord, needing a place to live, and not at the point to buy a home. What to do? Asking because I’m pretty sure this is common, and as corporations and property managers are taking over and the rental process is becoming less subjective and personal, this can be a big issue.

For all the investors that want to buy up the SFRs, you are taking away the primary avenue for low-income family wealth creation in the US. If you want to be a SFR landlord, then build them from scratch, which is something out of reach for many low-income families anyways. Low-income families cannot compete with quick close cash offers, or investors with excellent credit/large lines of credit. Quit complaining about lack of housing supply, if you're not willing to do something about it and use your credit to help fix the problem.

This is the best interview w/Meyer I've seen. Great job, guys!

What about a scenario where those who have homes just house their relatives.
Like inheritance for parents or relative families living together because prices are too high. Then demand just leaves forever. Or smaller populations after genz not creating that demand?

Bought our home in July, 2009 at bottom of mkt. Appraised value 400k, now the home is 985k, yes we have put money into it but it works out to buy low and hang on.

Excellent conversation

it's not a matter if but when.

This guy brought on as an "expert" is a total dumb ***, he recommends dollar cost averaging which is a literal pump and dump idea.

The govt should simply tax you more and more and more for each home purchased. You wanna own 15 homes hit them with a 15000% tax. It’s gonna end up supporting normal people or investors. Supporting the investors will lead to revolution.

Crash bros are DELUSIONAL! There will not be a crash. If you missed the dips throughout 2020-2023, that's your fault. Buckle up and get ready to pay more.

Home's are also bigger than they were 20 years ago. This is something no one talks about. I grew up in a 1,200sf home.

What would be great is more housing in the 1,000 - 2,000 sq ft range.
Family size is decreasing and housing size is increasing....
Edit: also more "shared" housing would also help - townhomes & condos (non-luxury). Lower energy consumption and cost to build.