Google Stock Easily To $500 On AI!

Even tho there's the risks of chatgpt taking part, and chrome's monopoly to forcefuly end?

Very good video, as always. I feel like the power of Google’s ecosystem is the ‘feeling’ that a person has about Google. I can only imagine what most people would pay if Google suddenly decided to charge for email…I think the need to keep paying is probably stronger than something like Facebook, but that is just me. Pretty wild that the S&P multiples are as high as they are compared to a company like Google.
Thanks adding value to my life by continuing with the great videos, I look forward to each one!

There is an ongoing legal case with Apple open that recently revealed that the Google searches inside iOS dropped for the first time in history. This reveals a new trend where people increasingly turn to AI instead of Google search. Google is a very peculiar company - all of the modern LLMs are based on research done in their labs. Yet somehow, they are not the leaders in AI. Google has always sucked at selling consumer products but there are some very smart people working at Google still. They should never be underestimated although sometimes I wish they had a CEO that was more like a Satya Nadella and less of the cute puppy that the current one is.

I could see the valuation go up when the capex stops and they start buying shares back more agressive then Apple. It could jump up a lot when they do it with all the new revenue of AI combined with existing ones…

Tech companies are pretty much cheating, so I agree, you can't count Google out. Business is simply too efficient.

Nobody search using google anymore. They use AI to get the answers and Google is well behind in the AI race. As for software, Google is not a leader either.

"if everything turns well"...with that qualifier it is easy to "predict" $500.

Hey Sven, I was wondering if you have had a look at Burford NYSE:BUR. I think its global reach makes it a good hedge against falling USD. Would love your insight on the topic.

google or amazon ? which to buy?

Robotics?

I would see LLMs (Chatgpt, Gemini,...) as a new interface for the user, much more powerful and confortable. But in the end, the LLM "only" manages and organizes the info used to train it, and shows the user that info in a better way. There is a first stage that Google does better than anybody: explore internet, collect the most useful information from internet, manage and classify all that information. And now, It will train its LLM (Gemini) with all that good info. Google search engine is the best one mapping internet and probably the output of its LLM Gemini will be the best one soon or later in the same way than you search info in Google instead of Bing because Google works and Bing is really bad. So, specially having in mind that users will want responses from LLMs containing realtime info from internet (from news, posts in social networks, from shops selling things...), that ability of Google to map internet will probably make Gemini the most accurate LLM. About ads, with AI and LLMs conversations, Google will have a much more accurate idea about what the user wants. And if you have the most used LLM (because It gives the better answers), how much a company would pay to get Gemini talking about them in the responses and putting links to its websites when a user wants something very specific related to them? Or even Google could sell new kind of products related to ads, for example something like "if you pay me X, i permit you to give me info that i will use to train Gemini with that info". A company, lets say Nike, could pay tons of dollars to Google, and Google would "manipulate" its LLM training it with super positive info about Nike products (and this will be reflected in the responses). AI opens lot of possibilities.

what is about stock-based compensation? adjusted The pe is 40

Is it only me that is hardly using google search since LLM appeared? I dont understand how can they possibly grow revenue there...can anyone explain?

Google ai is loosing market share.

If everything turns well, S&P500 will be 6000 this yr🤣

I know nothing about investing and even less about value investing, but feels like Sven woke up in speculative pants today

Everyone’s focused on valuation multiples and AI-driven earnings boosts, but there’s a deeper systemic risk few seem to recognize: the architecture of the software and network itself.

Google, like most tech giants, still runs on a centralized, ad-driven infrastructure built on legacy paradigms. If (or rather, when) the shift happens toward decentralized, user-controlled networks, where AI runs locally and data never leaves the device, their entire business model becomes obsolete.

AI isn’t just a new feature bolted onto the stack, it’s a force that can invert the entire architecture. The real question isn’t “Can Google grow with AI?” but rather, “Can Google survive in a post-cloud, post-ad world?”

I think we all know the answer.

So sure, Google may hit $500, but it would likely be short-lived.

My advice: avoid investing in tech. There’s too much uncertainty at the foundational level. Instead, hold what can survive a full substrate shift—real estate, critical infrastructure, and maybe gold in the intermediate term.

Definitely not Bitcoin. It highlights the failure of the current system, but it’s not the solution, just a necessary stepping stone.

I think a lot of people with pay for gemini advanced ...I am positive for google ...greetings from Germany

I’m buying Google as if it’s a turnaround. A turnaround that happens to be one of the best businesses in the world 😂.

Tesla will go to $500 first

The key concept here is "IF". I'm personally, making 99% of my search in ChatGPT "Search". Since for me, and only for me, at this time, Google AI search is a joke compared to ChatGPT. So, I'm not going to take that kind of risk with Google. If it's 500, I'm OK with missing it. I missed Tesla, Nvidia and I'm OK with it. However, I'd gladly buy Google at 90$

What a clickbait

It doesn't matter what they do, the truth is the game has fundamentally changed. There was one good gateway to information and now there's many.

I bought more google when dropped . Thankfully, I understand IT sector

I see that you finally used Gemini 2.5 and probably changed your mind! Thanks for the video. I do not see that much uncertainty around google as you see. Future is always unknow, also in all value stocks that anyone would select...But I understand every person has a different circle of compentence and different opinion, this does not mean that Google is not a value investment, specially ~150$....

2 weeks ago Google was selling off and going bankrupt due to losing the search, last week it rallied up 20 points on positive news. Market really has a short memory.

Long GOOGL LEAPS. Automatically hedges the downside, but very high upside.

Google is a scrap, the online revenue declines quickly, i would not touch it. They will not introduce ai,because it eats the online marketing.

Hello sven i would be interested in your take on mstr. Its not really a value stock so i have an idea that you would avoid, however i appreciate your style of analysis and think it might iluminate certain factors

Gemini is worst AI out of the top 5.

Sven is getting a bit clickbait lately

what ever happened to the antimonopoly issues?

Last earning includes a huge boost to their net income due to a change in valuation for their spaceX-holding. Operational free cash flow is a better way to monitor their growth because of this.

Hi Sven,
What about buybacks? In your Excel sheet, is that possible to consider those?
Because if Alphabet started doing buybacks as Apple did/does, we could be way beyond those 400$ (1000 in 10 years).
Are buybacks a thing when reasoning from a value investing pov?
Thanks

V03 is a game changer for Google and seeing the market’s response, I am taking a small position to get them on my radar.

They needed to improve their Gemini

Hi Sven thanks for your content, could you make a lithium update? Would really appreciate it.

hi Sven what do you think about ZTO express?

The biggest logistic company in china it hit a very nice valuation recently pe 10 and trading close to its book value in a growing midclass market the price is there because of alot of competition of other logistic companies, but long term should be fine ZTO express has very low debt alot of cash ( 15% ish free cash flow) which they use for dividends. A bit like Amazon they have alot of infrastructure set already which cannot be replicated easily by others.

I got this stock from you, but its a pretty long time ago, i thought to remind you about it since it has a very good valuation right now :)

I asked Gemini about this and it says that Google is well aware of this and that it's likely that as AI gets more used the answers given will have embedded links to sites so it will be the same as or similar to the current search only in more conversational rather than list form.
Also think what people usually ask google for, "flight prices" "where should i go on holiday", "Is x a good company to work for" I expect the vast majority of the time you'll be asking questions that you'll want to go to a specific website to see the answers too.
I expect the fear around this is overblown and the drop from $200 will be seen as a great buying opp in the next few years.
Can't promise we hit $500 though.

Thanks for the video Sven. Alphabet is bit tricky as lot of people don't have the circle of competence to understand it well--and hence can't have the commitment. Don't go shooting in the dark if you don't have night vision Googles.

Thanks for featuring my comments. Appreciate your insights as always. Also, I feel that Waymo will be spun off in next 2 years or so, generating a $50-100 to the stock or something like that. For your comment on AI overview ads, they are there on commercial queries which makes $$. AI mode is great. It searches 100+ sites and generates great answers.. very different than LLM. Pivoting there with Ads will be game changer

Review TARGET !!!!!

The stock looks cheaper than it is after factoring the SBC and the markup of their investment of SpaceEx.

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