Market Sizing Framework Walkthrough- Bain Style

The guy clearly reverse-engineered the part on MX population

He said there are average 2.5 childen and only took 2.5 persons per household, but he should have taken 4.5 people

Instead of beginning analysis at Mexico's population and multiplying that across household and other variables, shouldn't we only consider total number of homes and multiply that across number of lamps per home and spending for each? A lamp is not something that people carry where they go like a cellphone, it's a pretty immobile asset that stays in the home. Does that make sense?

I like this video !!! thanks a lot!

Calculations need to be explained in my opinion as the majority of the viewers are learning through this case.

I think the lamp remplacement rate and the new construction houses rate... Are the key factors to consider beside corporate, house holders and rural segments. That will significantly shif all the numbers.

Really cool stuff. But if lamps are the first preference when comes to illumination in Mexico, I doubt so? I would have told the interviewer that we can approach based on the household income as not every household needs a lamp- maybe some a household earning $50k per year will buy 2 lamps and based on its move ahead of the calculation. Another approach would be may for every 10 tubes and blub one lamp will be purchased in Mexico and do reverse engineer we will get the market size of the tube and blub market in Mexico and 1/10th of it will Lamp market.

For a new company getting a 5% share in new country is not at all possible, at most I will go with a 1% market share unless you have a backing big retail store like IKEA in that country which will sell exclusively all your lamps.

Where can I find all the strategy frameworks

there's so much more details he could've went into but he's clever so he chose a simple case. She's just making herself look stupid by picking on the exact details, and missing the point of it being un-researched assumptions.

It was ok....however, ensuring the scope for the term 'lamp' should be initial stage of market sizing. If he's talking about table lamp, decoration...those are luminaire. Lamp is a general term for source of light. I don't know how many of rural population can afford those.

What an odd assumption to make about lamps in residential settings versus in industrial / corporate settings when market sizing for Mexico. Smh

Why 2.5 for pop size and not 4.5? J looked it up and it’s 3.7

This performance fell short, many mistakes & wrong assumption and the interviewer didn't catch those as well.

I've a question... Why did he consider just 2.5 for households? Wouldn't be the right way to add the parents to this number? Tks.

This seems off, 50% of mexican population in poverty. I don’t think they are thinking in buying lamps...

Of course, market sizing ignores customer preferences (do they want the lamps our client offers?), can our client supply them to Mexico from the US (transport, regulation, customs), or do they need to set up a plant locally, and in either case, it might not even be profitable to do this (also in terms of time and mgmt attention).

Also, he quickly cut huge markets (business, industrial, government, infrastructure) + private (segment into students, home-owners, retirees, etc). Why do we have 10% in the US (can we even win with the same strategy in Mexico?). How about distribution, we are making multiple assumptions that we can sell into MX, the same as we are doing in the US.

Market sizing is great for when you have no data to estimate, but it's just a castle in the sky exercise. However, the dynamic between the two was great

I do not want to have her as my interviewer. She's tough cookie, lool. I like her though she asking right in-depth questions. Very good video

I would consider not the replacement rate but the rate of re-furnishing the home.

Why did he divide it by 2.5. I mean he said let say each family has 2.5 children but he forgot about the father and mother.

Shouldn't it be 4.5?
2. He considered total population, Mexico don't have rural population? Or they are rich enough to afford lamps that too in a quantity of 7. I guess not!

By this way if he would have calculated the numbers for India or china, it would be the best business to get into.
By in all it was good.

Where did the 5% come from? (500M x 5%)

I think the assumption that 100% of all households in Mexico owning lamps is too ambitious.


How about lamp alternatives such as lightbulbs? And wouldn't a difference between urban and rural / richer and poorer households play a role in lamp ownership? If we're going to 'average out' the lamps per Mexican household to be 5, is it representative of the rich : poor ratio?


For the American lamp numbers, it feels like a stretch saying that each room has 1-2 lamps. Furthermore, there might be rooms or entire households that do not rely on lamps.


Example: a 5-room 2 bedroom apartment would include a kitchen and bathroom. Does it make sense that 1-2 lamps are in those rooms as well?


I might be a bit too nitpicky. But then again, some interviewers are pretty nitpicky and would challenge assumptions a lot

Lamps are not the primary source of illumination in emerging countries. Apartments are fit with tubes and bulbs into wall sockets. Lamps are bought for decor by the upper-middle class, and hence the market size would be the top X% income earning households * 2 lamps at most for the decor. Valuable video though - informed me of the process followed by management consultants.

replacement rate and broken rate

130/2.5= 130×2/5=260/5=52≠50

There is an error in the math, 2.5 = 5/2

Why is it 2.5 per household ?

Great Video. Just a quick observation... I'm supposed to come into an interview armed with knowledge of:
1. Populations of ALL the world's countries (lol)
2. Number of households in each of these countries (lol)
3. Number of lamps (and other stuff I could be asked about) in these households (lol)
4. Price of lamps and every other random stuff people buy (lol)
5. Exchange rates for 180 currencies (lol)

I want to know in what context exactly this approach would be practical in helping a client. I understand a key part of an advisor's job is research but what client would want information off the top of my head without due research? I'd be really worried if they took my answers seriously. If that isn't the approach with actual cases, why would you adopt it for an interview? I'm confused. Very confused.

As an instance, consider the fact that I'm Nigerian (Africa). How would I possibly know (or 'estimate' off the top of my head) the population of Mexico (North America)?
How could I possibly estimate the number of lamps in Mexico when I'm not an expert/authority in the furniture sector? Consultants aren't even always typically industry experts. I appreciate the work they do but this interview approach needs a complete overhaul. You'll be missing out on a number of good hires because... "they don't know the number of lamps in Mexico". NB: How many fishes are there in the Gibraltar Waters? Sigh... Give me a fucking break.

JUST the content I’ve been looking for!!!