Approaching the Arctic Blue Ocean Event: Expected Locations of the Last Chunks of Remaining Sea Ice

August 09 2023we are no where near a BOE the midevil warm period was .5 C warmer than today and the Roman warm period was 1C plus warmer than today why fo you keep posting lies, and why dont you show the artic ice extent

As usual, the meaningless "blue ocean" fears are more hyped every year, even though it SHOULD be increasingly clear that such fears are nonsense. The entire arctic, during interglacial periods, acts as a very effective negative feedback heat sink for the planet, limiting any possible warming events.
It does this by very effectively freezing over every year, ensuring high reflectivity during the critical months of May-July, when the most direct and lengthy amounts of solar energy impact it. Arctic winters can then EASILY re-freeze nearly the entire arctic circle every year due to the massive heat radiation put out by any remaining open water during arctic winter. The more open water in September, the faster heat is lost once darkness falls.
We are no where near the limits of this negative feedback cycle, so need not fear any extensive overheating scenarios. Side note, of course, as this negative feedback grows, so will the weather patterns that transport the heat to the arctic to be radiated - quite possibly disrupting the global weather patterns we have become accustomed to.

Thankyou Paul, from AUS. Great reporting .

The blue ocean even in the Arctic will release exponential amounts of methane from the hydrates, this will make chemtrails unable to keep the temps stable. According the Sam Carana the elite will blow up a couple of volcanoes with nukes to make earth go into a nuclear winter and stop the hyper speed global heating. When the ashes finally come down ten years later, the ozone layer is completely gone and earth burns to toast in months. This is not conjecture, it is happening as we speak. The arctic has lost half its ice sheet and it is not coming back

As regards the melting of Arctic Ice, the records nearly always seem to start in 1979. Strange that, considering it was a year of record extent for Arctic Ice. Even so, data from NOAA (2022) show winter (March) ice coverage has hardly changed since '79, and that the summer (September) coverage trend had stopped declining since 2007. How inconvenient! Didn't someone predict in 2007 Arctic ice free by 2010, or 2015, or 2013, or in 5 years? Or was it in 2008 the Arctic ice sheet would melt away. Also predicted in 2008 North Pole ice free in ... 2008 ... or in 10 years. 2009 prediction: Arctic ice free in 2014. 2012 prediction: snow will be gone by 2020. And 2013 star prediction: Methane catastrophe in 2 years because of ice free Arctic. 2018 prediction: zero chance of permanent ice in Arctic by 2022. It's still there, and it's stopped shrinking.

Very difficult to listen thru the continuous "um"s.

I wonder Why Many dont believe it 😊 especially politicians say we Shall just Cut Down emissions over time I am not a climatologist so just hear and read so see 😊 what happens best guess when summer sea ice Will be ice Free and what if el nino come by the end of this year autumn or beginning next year what effect Can it have as el nino is the opposite og la Nina we have now which should have a cooling effect 😊

Could the event, whatever it was, that caused the younger dryas, have been responsible for the loss of sea ice? I give a lot of credibility to a impact event, and that seems to fit… What do you think?

I did not understand the relationship of this open ice period to the Younger Dreyfus. Is there overlap?

As I understand it, the last of the sea ice is likely to be windblown into the narrow passages greatly delaying improvements to navigation even with open water.

May I add (see my previous comment) that sea ice extent, though significant, is a much less reliable indication of ice melt than sea ice VOLUME. As ice melts and disintegrates it will naturally tend to spread out and cover a wider area. According to the criteria currently applied, as little as 15 percent ice present in a sea area allows us to include said area in "sea ice extent" (which might be useful for some purposes - say, navigation - but seems to me to be a very low threshold when it comes to assessing sea ice melt). We must also bear in mind the effects of currents, winds, etc. in spreading or piling up ice in some areas (e.g. against the coastline) in contrast with others. Imagine a huge iceberg or chunk of icecap with only a fraction of its mass emerging above water. Based on current criteria, if this iceberg or chunk breaks into several pieces due to global warming and those pieces drift apart, sea ice extent INCREASES - and we might mistakenly conclude that "all is well". Etc. etc.

If the Lincoln sea was ice-free at some point in the Holocene (10,000 years ago), and this was due to variation in the Milankovitch cycle (i.e. variation of the eccentricity, obliquity, precession of the Earth's orbit), then the key questions are the following: 1) Was the absence of ice in the Lincoln sea (and, possibly, in some other adjacent areas) due solely to Milankovitch cycle variation or did some other factors intervene, including a higher overall average planetary temperature than in subsequent periods? 2) On the assumption that the overall temperature was not higher than in later periods, was the ice that was NOT forming in the Lincoln sea forming elsewhere? 3) If so, to what extent and in what proportions was it forming on land (which might not impact albedo significantly) as opposed to forming in some other (previously or subsequently ice-free) sea area - in other words, what was the overall balance in terms of albedo effect? At first glance, the relevant data are so scarce and there are so many imponderables that any discussion around these recent findings is mainly (tendentious) speculation, peppered with a few non sequiturs and a dash of muddled thinking.

Paul your information is good, but you badly need presentation training.

An ABOE will cause mass starvation as a result of crops failing to grow in high heat. This may happen as early as 2024 per Guy Mc Pherson. My garden-farm in New Jersey lost ability to thrive when temps went to 104F. I lost rare plants from Italy and their seeds for further plantings. The high temp on one day in 2012(?) was 116F in nearby Atlantic City. Way beyond the 104F plant growth shutdown temperature. We in trouble…
💚 to all…

Why are you treading on eggshells over this Paul.
It is what I is. They can't hurt us now.

If we have a summer-ice-free Arctic, plus a strong El Niño, plus a solar maximum, we are in for some strong feed-back loops, particularly the thawing of the permafrost releasing huge amounts of methane.

At some stage in the future scientists will STOP saying global heating can be reversed. For me 9as sad as it seems) I will be glad because it can't and they have to stop saying so. I live on river Maas in Holland and watch tens of barges loaded with tons of coal heading towards Germany every day...

Will never happen. Ice mass is now growing at both Poles last 7 years. It just gets roo damn cold @ Poles. Historic pole melting suggests it's has to be solar driven. It's the Sun that makes Earth warmer or colder.....it's the Sun, stupid!

If it's an event, will they be selling tickets for it ?? That'd be interesting to see....lol

Article is confusing things, 10,000 years ago was the younger dryas impact and especially the haiawatha crster in greenland.

The “earth has natural climate cycles” people are growing in number as a sort or half truth pushback against global / anthropogenic warming. It’s a case of people having some of the knowledge, but not enough to know that they’re incorrectly applying it. The world has been hotter and colder than where we are now, but never before short of impact events in the distant past have we seen such dramatic changes so quickly - especially without an obvious natural trigger.

The earth has been cycling in and out of stadial / interstadials throughout the Pleistocene and technically the Holocene is just a continuation of that glacial maximum / glacial minimum procession. We should be slowly sliding back toward another glacial, I’ve heard some very smart individuals postulate the Little Ice Age may have been the initial phases of a slow descent towards another “ice age” stadial.

Well, we promptly aborted that, that’s for sure. I always try to tell these people, “you’re right! The earth does vary its climate naturally, usually over long periods of time. In fact, we should be heading soon into another glacial maximum and temperatures should be cooling due to our position in the Millankovitch cycle, wanna take a stab why we’re instead warming at an unprecedented rate?”

If the average person had even a basic understanding of physics, there would be no debate. It’s unfortunate how this is still even controversial in some segments of society, though I know mostly from a US perspective.

I share your pessimism from an earlier video Paul, I think we’re fucked. Too many people care too little or are too distrustful of science and scientists to apply the kind of political pressure needed for wholesale changes. Some countries being better than others, overall.

Highly depressing stuff.

The study said that if we stopped emitting, the ice would reform? Even though the dark ocean absorbs so much more heat energy? Did I mishear that because it doesn’t seem to make sense based on everything I’ve been told before.

How would the ocean circulation change when the land bridge was in place and no water coming from the the Bering strait?
With the Shire have slowed and therefore deposited sediment in center?

Could we block The Nair straight with sinking ships or other means?

Hey Paul still havnt found how to Screencast? 😮😅

*I am not a climate change denier* - I am genuinely asking this. If CO2 levels were around 280-300PPM 9000 - 11000 years ago, how was there no ice in the arctic sea? Do we know what caused that warming event?

We did call our dog Odin as a joke because the kids used to play a game called hammer of the gods which proclained rthe power of various Norse gods. Normally this has been shortened to Odie. he currently seems to trying to rub his nose snot on the couch.

Nose Hair! 🤮 Paul, please.

All complete bollocks. The earth has been warming since the year dot. We havent made that much difference, in fact CO2 actually helps plants grow. California is out of drought now so its ALL good.

When the Arctic Sea Ice has melted all away The Greenland melt will certainly speed up faster and faster. And Paul still figures that by 2070 Sea level will rise by 7 meters. So as this becomes apparent to the masses Ocean Front property will become worthless, but this will become realized much sooner than 2070. So when does everyone think The Masses of people will realize this?

I wish you would publish the link to things like this in the comment section.

Have you been to this channel MARGOS HEALING CORNER ?

I wondered this too.

I did numbers years ago and the math said 2024. This Ball park number by math is not accurate but close, because the planet and its inhabitants of it are diverse. My take is my math was before covid-19 and now we are after. Could be 2025/26 but that is but one or two years. The Younger-Dryas was the last time all the ice was gone. This extinction event took all the Mega-fauna and much more. Not so sure this one will be the same, and I am inclined to think it will be more.

You put an insulating igloo pressure cap 3km thick over an intensely active rifting and volcanic system like Greenland, CAA, Lincoln and Ellesmere island for thousands of years, then eventually it will blowout, and release all that heat.

sea ice volume represents a latent heat budget. If it reaches zero in September th energy willbe replaced by sensible heat and cause Arctic Amplification feedback. Winter sea ice volume will decrease with exponential decay in 5 years (delay in refreezing delay will double every year . sequence of the delay = 2 weeks - 4,8,16,32 weeks. This also explains the 5 years warming steps in Dansgaard-Oeschger events.

It seems the 'extent' trend (Zac's) is over-laid by a step feature that would (possibly) give the first BOE in 2028-29, followed 10 years of oscillation (ice-no ice-ice), before virtually no ice growth becoming the new regime.

Any ideas who determined the 1M km2 mark for sea ice surface (or extent) as limit for the Blue Ocean Event?
I mean if it is that arbitrary, we might as well be living the BOE already.
(It might not be a discrete event anyway, but a continuum.)

As all the ice melts then ocean temperatures can only rise much faster than they are now, recent severe storms/ extreme weather events will seem nothing to what may be unleashed in the future.
Most people do not get it, that the oceans hold gargantuan amounts of heat energy and any slight increase in average temperature magnifies that energy.
Shipping etc may become very hard or impossible, who knows.
Gaz UK.

Too bad more of these papers aren't talking about deep ocean heat.
And there are too many intangibles involved with these scientific types to make any predictions. I'm waiting for the Laptev ice to clear out so we can see the persistent, powerful, perennial, stationary currents. These seem to be remnants of the MOSAIC Expedition from Bremen. It seemed bizarre that since they have been in place we had a sudden drift of the remaining Multi-Year Ice into the Beaufort Sea. Could this be because they find it easier to manage thinner ice with those persistent currents? Finding the power to maintain those unnatural currents must be a formidable task.
Then there is the taint ice. Areas in the First Nations Archipelago just seemed to be remarkably resistant to weeks, even months of above 10°C temperatures. I often pictured the little boy with his finger in the dike. Trouble is he only has ten fingers, and ten toes...hopefully there won't be more than 21 plugs that need to be filled.

Thank you Paul on behalf of humanity 👊🏼🙌🏼

My best guess for the first BOE will be summer 2024.

Are you really responsible for the term "Blue Ocean"? We were just discussing yesterday how it needed to be rebranded. Blue Ocean sounds great, something we should strive for. Instad of Blue Ocean we need something that underscores just how catestrophic it would be... Ice dirth death spiral...

Aerosol masking effect loss when ecology affects the economy will ironically be the crucial final tipping point.

Civilization is in serious danger. We need to get rid of capitalism and invent/adopt a totally different new system; I guess it has to be a kind of democratic, humanistic and ecological socialism. I hope it is not too late for that.

Paul, this is interesting arttic ice report,
15 metre thick ice / 45 feet ice.
pretty invincible has melted gone.

There was a land bridge between Russia and Alaska, which probably had an effect on the currents. , there's also the rapid rise of sea level. But the sediment cores look like the younger dryus

Data has no value
The world been coring the ice since 1900 and science says trillions of years old now you say 10;000 years
There's not one person that no's there head from there ass
Corruption is all humans have
Worst Creation to ever walk the planet