How Massive Reduction in China’s Aerosols Have Increased Global Warming and Changed Precipitation

Between 2010 and 2017 China reduced SO2 aerosol emissions by 70%, Black carbon by 29%, and Organic Carbon by 41%.

These huge efforts have saved numerous Chinese lives by cleaning up the air.

However, we know that aerosols have a large effect on radiative forcing, and thus on temperature and precipitation patterns.

With less aerosols, there is less reflection of incoming solar radiation and this more surface warming (direct effect). More significantly, with less aerosols there are fewer low level clouds and much greater increases in solar radiation hitting the surface, with much greater warming (indirect effect).

With China’s huge reductions of aerosols, this warming has extended into the Pacific Ocean and the Arctic leading to greatly increased regional warming there.

When North America cleaned its air, the warming accelerated especially over the Atlantic Ocean and Arctic.

When Europe cleaned up its air, the warming accelerated over China and into the Pacific and Arctic.

Aerosol effects are super powerful, and it is becoming ever more obvious that James Hansen has been right all along. Aerosol masking effects are much stronger than mainstream science expected, meaning Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity is also much greater than mainstream science (IPCC) expected.

The good news:

SOS (Solar Optimization Strategies), which is my term replacing the accountants term SRM (Solar Radiation Management) will be an extremely powerful antidote to prevent complete civilization collapse, if we do it right.

It will be done. The only question is will we do it right?

Key references…

Deadly Pacific ‘blobs’ tied to emission cuts in China
Warming due to cleaner air rippled across the ocean, modeling suggests… https://www.science.org/content/article/deadly-pacific-blobs-tied-emission-cuts-china

Earth Nullschool https://earth.nullschool.net/

Atmosphere teleconnections from abatement of China aerosol emissions exacerbate Northeast Pacific warm blob events
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2313797121#:~:text=Here%2C%20we%20show%20that%20the,contributing%20to%20increased%20warm%20blob

“Climate effects of China’s efforts to improve its air quality”: key open source peer-reviewed scientific study: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab9e21/pdf

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