China's Economy is 60% Smaller Than We Thought

China has steadily increased its electricity generation over the past 20 years, reaching 7,600 tera watt hours (TWh) in 2020 from 1,280 TWh in 2000, according to recently updated Country Analysis Brief: China according to the US Energy Information Administration. In theory a country's electricity demand growth equals to its real GDP growth (that is excluding the inflation). How can China GDP growth be 5% (including inflation) or 60% smaller ?

While I had doubts before regarding The relationship between China's GDP and night lights, I don't anymore.
My reason being the reported "collapse" of China's internal consumption.
I now believe that there is no actual collapse but that the reason people are not spending is because Chinese people have actually less spending capacity than we were made to believe from the inflated GDP numbers.
Sure China created thousands of millionaires and billionaires (money that have largely fled China), but the vast majority of the population still remained either just above or below the poverty line.

Well one more thing is that all the infrastructure you see in China, it's all debt based infra, China is a debt and export based economy, China has 23 trillion dollar debt according to Bloomberg that is quite high, usa is quite better economy than China with usa has 125% debt per gdp but still quite better than Chinese debt as their real estate and banks going bankrupt for example evergrande, and shadow loans

Pretty dumb correlation
Yes offence
Countries like Singapore Taiwan have no geographical area where they could show how much light has increased
Mumbai from top is well lit
So does Shanghai
So does Newyork
And there's a huge difference of gdp of these cities

The light can come from 100 slums ans 1 casino
From above both look same
Just a example that yiu can co-relate Devlopment with light

Thanks 4 Great Reportage!
Statistically highly likely it is overestimating g FDP with average 30% ...!?

China's overheated property sector, is likely to inflate imputed rent and by extension GDP.

this is a ludicrous video. night lights? lmao. westoids will do everything to undermine china.

This statement is ridiculous.

Not only Economy is 60% smaller even the actual Chinese land is 70% smaller than what it is shown after annexing neghboiring lands .

Both the US & the EU tell us in their own figures that they have been running massive trade deficits with China for decades. Did the authoritarians make that shit up as well?

And here was me thinking that China was the number one producer of cars, ships, solar panels, EV batteries, high-speed rail, tires, shoes, textiles, mobile phones, laptops etc etc etc etc, that China produced and consumed half the world's coal etc etc etc.

I definitely believe their GDP is overstated but Martinez’s data only goes up to 2008 and China has developed a lot since then. I’m curious if the data would still show 60% less GDP from 2008-2023?

30% USA citizens are homeless which is more than any other countries. How you will claculate USA GDP on this parameter

Never Trust China's Official Statistics !!

CCP China only has 6 million people. CCP has been lying about their data all along!

Western propaganda at its finest.

I’ve only been introduced to your channel so I’m very late into the news. I’m so sorry for your loss.

Also, I want to thank you for the great information you’re sharing in your videos.

The idea of binary classification of countries into democracies and autocracies is an oversimplification, to say the least.

Nice Cat.

RIP he was a cute incredible kitty. We love our best friends. Some of the worst pain you can ever feel. Very sorry

This video is massive copuim

HAAAAAHAAAAAAAA

😢

China reported 6% growth while reporting double digit loss of revenue from taxes year over year.

My deepest condolences and greatest respect for the loss of your dear companion. Rest well, Henry.

Whilst I've got huge respect for the Chinese people, for their industrious hard working nature, anyone who believes anything released by the Chinese political party is either very young or a fool.

Oh you are the one that tipped the internet idiots the idea huh

RIP macrocat ❤️

How was this jot picked up by the media

China gpp is 100 trillion then real gdp is 60 or (60 percent smaller) 40 ?

Look at manufacture output and China produces much more cars and other industry output than US. The actual GDP of China is way larger than US

Ugh. Another anti-China “expert.” What racist clickbait nonsense is he gonna spew?

The USA is the only major country with fake GDP, China has actual production to make a claim, despite the R&D the USA doesn't have any competitive productions and they are highly dependent on Finance based economy, Which literally means 50% of the USA GDP is based on the dollar printed in U.S. Federal Reserve. The dollar only has value because others use it in international transactions. USA become Zimbabwe if no one uses the US Doller for transactions for the next 1 year

I have look at the Chinese economy for the past 25 years as economist I do believe that the Chinese economy GDP is 40% lower than the government numbers and that show now in several bubble who are bursting out of control and blowing in the CCP and XJP face right now like real estate the financial sector, the environmental and more to come. It’s not by no reason that I been claiming since 2012 that XJP take down not only the economy but also the CCP. Youth unemployment it’s the biggest problem as it can trigger revolution in China. 500 million youth unemployment could not be crashed like the 1989 revolution.

The We thought you are talking about,
You are in yourself bro.

West didn't want to accept that there is another great country growing in front of them.

I think the biggest tell that the Chinese economy is what is claimed is the ghost cities which are what have caused the real estate bubble they are desperately trying to prevent from destroying their economy.

Looking at PRC's GDP from another perspective, if one assumes that exports are the same proportion of GDP as Germany's ( 40%), we get a figure of about $9trn. Half the official figure. That seems reasonable to me. Any thoughts?

Curious about the color scheme chosen. In one chart you chose Green for Autocracies and Red for Democracies. In another chart at the end showing only Chinese data, you chose Green color for Red Chinese ?

I am a Chinese, yes, I think you are right. China's GDP is very small. Please tell every American that China is about to collapse, and China will never surpass the United States. Don't talk about China's threat anymore, thank you

Sure to all of this. But the Chinese threat isn't their economy, it's the threat to the US dollar that makes it a threat to the US (and the west by proxy)

中國只是個發展中國家，怎麼會是西方世界的威脅呢🐶

Why is this a surprise? The CIA over-estimated the Soviet economy by GDP was off by roughly 50%. On top of that, they based estimates on steel and concrete production that was never used, because the UN estimated GDP on those two production numbers. Mao did the same thing with his village steel production initiative in the 1960's, not to mention the current Ghost Cities in China. The CIA wanted to make the Soviets look more dangerous than they really were to support excessive defense spending. The same thing is happening now with China and the threat to Tiawan.

No matter whether China's GDP data is true, China's import and export data must be true, because China's import/export data equals foreign countries' export/import data, which cannot be forged. If China's real GDP were 40% of the declared one, China's export/GDP ratio would be about 50%, which equals that of Germany. I don't think communist China fits itself into the world market deeper than Germany.

Have you considered to use other statistics than linear regression? Why should economic change be linear? Maybe it is curved? There is much less data in the later part of the regression, making it less reliable. A curvo-linear regression could maybe be a better representation of the data. And... I'm not sure if imposing trends from way back in the 90ties and early 2000nds makes sense for China? It has likely been a huge technological development during the last 15 years there, as everywhere else. Also, official Chinese data shows a rather strong decline in growth for the latest data for the last months of this year. This might indicate that we might actually have reliable Chinese official data. Anyway, it's just a thought.

I'm not steeped in Macro & Money lore, but RIP Macrocat. They were a real one.

难怪视频播放量这么高😂原来是替美国工作，美国 GDP 用消费算，中国用生产算。实际美国 GDP 只有中国 40%才对早在 2014 年 ppp 中国就超过美国

Can you do a video showing the inflated US GDP figures? For example, new indicators were recently adopted by the BEA reveal not just hypocrisy, but a hegemonic attempt to create accounts that only the US benefits from. Three examples: National Security is now a fixed asset. R&D including investor losses are counted as assets, and Cumulative accounting measures past, present and ANTICIPATED Futures. Seriously WTF?

And when you account for debt, even with these inflated figures, US per capita debt is around $80k. let that sink in for a moment.

From satellites lol lol lol