Aptera to deliver 5000 vehicles in 2025?

Thanks' for the update Steve. I'm far more concerned about the first 400. I turn 81 in 2025. That's kinda old for a road trip up the coast to Seattle. I hope to swing by cousin Norms for his 95th birthday. Go team!

Note that the power train is considered 100% ready in the schedule. That means what ever is going on with Elaphe the motors are ready for production.
As for the schedule they have been overly optimistic in all schedules to date. Remember the PI builds were supposed to be out by the end of December then some time in March. When you are leading a new project like this you have to be highly optimistic to keep your self and the team energized. Remember work will expand to fill the time available. If you schedule for pessimism the work to get there will expand and you won't make the pessimistic schedule either.
My best guess on schedule is add 50% to the present schedule and then see where you are at this time next year then add 50% to that schedule. So expect about a 75% slip. Hopefully they are planning on getting money to a pessimistic schedule, not the optimistic one.

There has been no information about how these are going to be shipped to owners across the country. I'm sure we are $$$$ paying for it.........

My guess: 1st production delivery on August 1, 2025.

If they're still talking part suppliers, then Q1 2025 is a total pipe dream. I do think Aptera have done a bit of disservice with the over estimating when they'll be ready. You can only string people along so long, just be honest.

Hmm, I'm never getting mine, am I...? EU/UK RHD version? Reservation 42,000 or so in the queue, whatever that may end up being after all the push-backs and jump-forwards with priority for new-market special editions, etc...

There are folk out there with many referrals (I'm not one of them, with zero, despite going to shows and banging the SEV drum for a couple of years now). If this goes on for much longer, their referrals will never be realised as purchases, and they won't get their discounts.

I've been saying that my current car will be replaced by my Aptera, but I'm already having to deal with spares availability (it's now 18yrs old), so if it ends up that my order slips to 2027/8, or never if EU/UK can't be sorted, then I can't in all honesty delay getting an EV. Money's not infinite - if that happens, who knows if I'll have enough to buy my Aptera when they come knocking to say it's ready...

I think first delivery to a customer will be around June, 2025

Oh m I’d say 2025 is optimistic for 5 k cars. I’ll put a few bucks in a pool for fun though

They have stated that they've already secured manufacturing and licensing rights for the motor. They have stated that sourcing is complete. They have stated that they are not manufacturing the motor. So, by process of deduction, some undisclosed supplier is manufacturing the motor designed by Elaphe. That manufacturer could be anywhere in the world, established company, startup, partnership, or subsidiary. We'll just have to wait until they announce the details.

Quite a few negative comments posted. Might as well throw in my two cents. I reserved later because of being skeptical after my bad decision to throw away money towards Elio motors. I am content on waiting for my Aptera. My refundable deposit is minimal.

9 months of testing and validation seems doable. However, based on previous conversations I've had with the team and taking into account lines take time to build and synchronize I'd say if we are able to manufacture 1,000 units by end of 2025 we'll be on a really good track.

Now, the issue is the three models Tesla is waiting to unveil, rumor has it they plan on starting deliveries of the sub 30k Model 2 (aka Q) by late 2026 so the next 18 months are a "make it or break it" period for Aptera.

Nail bitting.

Naysayers aren’t going to like this…but consider an IWM switch because a major performance spec or even two are better than the previous bespoke Elaphe. Lots of positive potential reasons for a switch.

anybody find it odd timing that Aptera will have a rolling pi build at the end of july and early august, also when tesla reveals there 3 wheel robotaxi on aug. 8th.🤔

I think they could easily build the required PI builds for testing, probably all within a single week, if not a day or two. If they are all identical and an example of what those who buy it will be getting, 10-15 should be easy for them to get done in a single day, if the production assembly runs smooth. Which I don't see why they wouldn't put the assembly to the test when building them. As for the actual tests, I have no idea how long that takes. I couldn't imagine it would take too long to see the results of, for example, a side impact. They smash it and see what happens to the crash test dummies. The only issue would be if any of those tests fail. If that happens, then it would delay production.

Aptera is VERY experienced at kicking the can down the road! 😂

Given the lack of financing, a first production delivery date any early than Dec 2025 seems unlikely. If the financing comes through and no major problems come up in PI testing, then late 2025 delivery seems possible.

CA said that he expected financing from US Capital should happen within weeks not months for what that is worth. I also believe that the survival of the company is highly dependent on getting production started in 2025. It seems likely that $25k EVs will start to become widely available by 2026 and this will make the Apteta a hard sell possibly.

Going to be hard to drive W/O motors.

I do not believe for a moment that they are ninety seven percent sourced. Given how much of the initial PI build is being made very ad hoc - we now know even the battery pans are being hand made so they are certainly not production intent parts. Calling any of these first three Production Intent is just another lie. Something big happened with their hub motors to the point they won't even state they still will use a hub motor configuration.

At least I will agree with you on one thing, they aren't going to have 5k out by 2025, they will be lucky to have one. They cannot even get one thrown together PI before the end of August at the rate they are going and they are supposed to have three of these???? One for Steve, Chris, and Jason :) - just kidding. They don't have the funds for the PI builds beyond the one they have the body for and they have given no indication where the second and third bodies are. Ask them Steve, press them on this. What is going on with #2 and #3. Are they too going to have frames, suspension, and more, installed in California or will they be PI build as promised which means that part is done in Italy.

We know the frame is being custom made for the first PI - so scratch that being Production Intent. They just showed off the being built battery pans. Did they ever pay the 500k for the steering wheel? - Remember Chris claiming it would cost that much!

We will not see a production vehicle in 2025.


Because Aptera told us there would be at least ten we can easily track progress so here is my bet - there will never be even ten PI builds.

My order page was recently updated from "2025" delivery to "H1, 2025". Because of California location, Ambassador endorsement, and kind of early reservation date, I'm guessing my LE might be the 3,000th to 5,000th. Aptera changing my delivery seems to indicate they are more optimistic. We'll see.

I definitely think there will be delays in validation and some technical fixes which they themselves have described but getting those resolved correctly and quickly the first time is a difficult challenge. So yes I have thought for some time that ramping up production will be a ways out and as was stated here it would be amazing to see any deliveries in late 2025 etc. Instead, I think limited CA deliveries as late as 2027 is quite possible even if 2026 is still productive for them. I would be absolutely astonished if any of those deliveries went beyond CA before then. Watching how slow some of these other small EV startups are to try and ramp up is one reason I say this but I also think any small EV company no matter how much they try to do volume early on is still going to take longer than most people think to hit its stride.

There is a clear thing to do, please read this first.

The fundamental flaw in the Aptera program, as I've commented on over the past 18 months, is that the crowdfunders are not even at an entry level of product development and manufacturing skill level.
"They do not not know what they do not know" as Steve phrased it on an earlier video.
The way it's done:
In '22, the Gamma should have been followed by 1-3 test mules which represented their best/first SYSTEM, and been in constant development/evolution since then. This experience is irreplaceable.
At the same time, the search and qualification of suitable vendors should have begun. The vendor base getting developed right alongside the product.
At the end of '22, the long lead BinC should have been released safe in the knowledge that you have all of the system/other parts at the same level. While the BinC is taking its year all other (long lead) parts are alongside of it, and later, based on leadtimes, lesser parts get released.
When they got to 1st quarter '24, get this, they would have a package of components that were the product of extensive test internally, as well as extensive vendor test. Then you assemble the PI's and test with those.

You saw the PI schedule (projected in November) to have PI.1-3 completed "in the first few months of next year".

It did not happen because of shortage of funds. It did not happen because the "extreme team" as in seasoned design and manufacturing engineers that have done programs over and over like this and KNOW this, LIVE this, WIN at this, are nowhere to be found. Still.

Thank you for reading this far.

What do you do? Where's the program?
On the whole transparency thing, you DO NOT speculate and wait to be fed whatever they choose to tell you.

What you do is get Steve or Drew or one of your other homies into Aptera and demand this:

- Show us every part you have on hand to build PI.1-3.
- Tell us when you expect every significant part to be on site.
- Tell us which parts are off tools, which are prototypes.
- Tell us what your concerns are in moving forward to complete the first 3 PI's.
- Show us a dated milestone chart reflecting the content, testing to be performed for each PI. Start and duration.
- We would like to meet your core manufacturing team and understand what qualifies them to put this product into production, ramp it up, and maintain a schedule.

Transparency? Then you get your answers.
There are more questions of course, but you need to get these answers.

Especially if you think you might want to invest.

Please feel free to critique or question anything in this comment.

Steve, you need to watch the end of the Munro video on battery module cooling. It may explain the change in strategy for Aptera's battery cooling.

Very overly optimistic timeline! My LE date says first half of 25. I’m not an accelerator nor investor, live about 400 miles from Carlsbad and am an ambassador. Still lots of hurdles to jump but I would say 3/4 of the way around the track!

I don't think the chart indicates that production is intended to begin in the 2nd quarter of 2025. It doesn't say "Q2". It says "Q1". The chart could easily show a label for Q2 if one is intended, there is one for 2024. I think the position of the marker on the graph is intended to indicate that production will start at the END of Q1. So a March/April time frame.

Now is this optimistic? Maybe. The plan was for production to begin nine months after funding was acquired, and nine months from now is close enough to March. But of course Aptera is depending on US Capital to raise funding, and we don't know how much they've managed to raise yet, or how steadily the funding will come in. Not having the money up front will certainly cause delays. So the schedule could slip into Q2.

I'm not sure I'm worried about the PI builds, though. First of all, I assumed that there would be two PI builds, PI1 and PI2, and that does not seem to have happened. It seemed like a good idea to me to have one PI build for designing and putting together the interior, and a second build for designing abd testing the chassis. PI1 could be stationary and maybe powered by a temporary battery while they were making the wiring fit, while PI2 would have a bare bones interior just for a place to sit while driving it. But apparently the plan all along was to build the wiring and chassis together.

If we haven't really needed a PI2 or PI3 yet, then we're just waiting on PI1 to be completed. And by "completed" I mean drivable with an interior and wheels. It will probably lack cooling at this point, as well as air conditioning, infotainment system and more than a rudimentary BMS, but that can all be added when it's ready.

The question is, how quickly can they turn out PI builds once PI1 is done? Didn't somebody say that they can turn out one a day once the parts are available? Even if that's optimistic, with PI1 to the point where it is drivable, most of the most difficult work is done. Aptera may build the PIs in batches, ss they get the funding and parts to build several of them, and then build more a few months later.

I don't mean to sound overly optimistic, but I think they can mange to build one PI model a month. Maybe I'm wrong, but we should start seeing progress on PI1 next month and close to completed the month after that. If we immediately see PI2 and PI3 and they start being demonstrated then that will pretty much confirm they can build more very quickly. I would start worrying if it's three months from now and PI1 is still in the shape it's in now.

I think your estimate is hopefully realistic if there's funding. I'm going to be surprised if that goes well. Then PI testing. Then performance reality check. Then price reality check. Then production if the vehicle is economically viable. That's a lot of wishing and hoping for early 2026.

I'm poised to pick mine up! I'll Uber ride my bike up to Carlsbad as a ritual efficiency pickup! Plenty of room in the back for it! It'll be a triumphant day! When the launch and first orders are filled, it'll be just the beginning. Now is the time we all have to work harder than ever. Keep that solar mobility momentum going, and Aptera WILL be the benchmark! ❤️🌍🌎🌏☀️

My guess: First customer delivery before July 4, 2025. Production rate of 10,000/yr by end of 2025. Average rate of 5,000/yr over the second half of 2025. Result: 2500 customer deliveries in 2025, including all Accelerators, plus the next 500 in line.

Steve, thanks for talking about the absence of Elaphe from their supplier listing. But on the supply chain and parts supplier slide the bar graph for the powertrain shows the component as having the parts supply chain as 100% completed... so something is nailed down for the hub motors we just need to hear the details.

Doubts are growing about Aptera.
1] Three of the last last four AOC titles have ended with a question mark.
2] Chris Anthony body language. Persistent hand wringing during presentation and recent weight gain.
3] Increased use of "The old person's pause" on these boards. Namely the three dots ... to indicate trepidation. A sure sign the author is over 60 years old and doubtful.

I am guessing that production will begin in April 2025. I think that the additional funding will enable Aptera to move forward faster, and on many fronts simultaneously.

First delivery to someone not employed by Aptera... March 2026

They may be renegotiating with Elaphae. I hope this gets worked out soon.

I am guessing March of 2025. With 3500 produced by the end of the year.

CTNS apparently sells a lot of battery packs for manufacturing robotics in Korea.

Let’s go Aptera!!

7 years for a start up, womp womp

Better be better than honda insight. They rushed it out to beat prison and it wasn't ready. Mine sucked ....

Prius

2025? Gosh that’s so many years away. Wait a min…

Summer 2026

Can it drive up a Hill without over heating?

You said we should take bets when first production vehicle produced, you said nov 2025,
I'll bet $80usd that never will production vehicle happen.
Want to have a bet on when they go bankrupt? I'm saying June 2026 for another $80usd
I'm very negative I know hope I lose the bet as this is an absolutely amazing opportunity for these guys to prove me wrong, they had no idea crowd funding would raise so much, this is a one off opportunity for them..........lets see 99.9999% honesty especially with regards solar range/ car range from test data not predicted results.
This car can go 1,000miles.........on one charge......ok lets see a media event where they drive to max distance on one charge! If these guys cant do the job just pull the plug and not upset people expecting to see cars soon.

Do not care who makes them but no IWM I will have lost all faith in them

CONCERNS... MAXEON has a lot of debt and stock is selling for twenty cents a share. With cells manf outside of us, u will not get rebate.

Thinking about the motor, remember Chery actually makes a couple of small EVs that are already sold in China. 🚗

Yes. Lack of all wheel drive is very important. Maybe not as much as lack of fast charging. But pretty close.

Another Dale (of the 70s) and Elio (2000s) car that will never be produced. Great sales pitch though...just like all the others.