Musk: Tesla FSD is going to get 5x BIGGER!!

Musk also said:

1 million Robotaxis in 2020

5x to 10x less interventions with 12.4.1 software (how did that work out?)

1 million humans on Mars by 2050. A poisonous planet, no food or water, trillions of dollars .

Do you think HW3 can get to level 3 or higher, or will we need HW4?

Tesla has posted a second fall in quarterly sales in a row as it faces fierce competition from China.

The US electric car maker, led by Elon Musk, delivered 443,956 vehicles in the three months to the end of June.

This was 5 per cent less than in the same period of 2023 and follows a 9per cent decline in the first quarter of the year.

It was the first back-to-back quarterly sales fall since 2012. However, sales were slightly stronger than analysts were predicting.

It also puts it ahead of its closest Chinese rival BYD.

BYD sold 426,039 vehicles in the three months to the end of June.

The company overtook Tesla in the final quarter of 2023 when it sold 526,409 electric vehicles compared to Tesla’s

how does FSD know about traffic regulations per country?

In my understanding it does not - it is impossible for FSD to learn about changes in regulations and therefore FSD is incapable of passing a driver licence test. If it is incapable of passing a test, then why would you allow it on the streets?

If you are puzzled about what I am talking about e.g. 2022 (AT): minimum distance of 1m to a bicycle when driving >= 50km; 2023: distance increased to 1.5m

Musk also said:

1 million Robotaxis in year 2020.

1 million humans on Mars by 2050.

Pretty stupid for people to fall for this command and control of their vehicles hook line and sinker!

If this update is 5x better than the last & that one was 10x better than the one before, and 10x better than the one before that, and so on....... there must be people out there driving with software 70 trillion tims more dangerous than the latest version.

These software updates are like Monthly patches for your PC or phone. All it does is fix bugs that have been identified. It doesn't miraculously advance the technology like you guys seem to think.

Don't care Hard Pass

So what I am hearing is soon those on Hardware 3 are not going to be able to improve much better.
Second it would be better to wait till middle of next year when hardware 5 will start being in cars before upgrading. Considering we have learned hardware 4 is only about 4x of hardware 3. Elon stated hardware 5 would be 10x better than 4.

A good skin care? No sugar at all, a reasonable amount of fat food, and a good sleep. Congratulations – your skin is clear and velvety.

Sure hope it fits well into HW3 😅

I noticed with 12.3.6 it was amazing in unusual situations but made a hash of normal driving.

I had to turn this off after listening to a minute of whose house he’s staying in, where it is, where he’s been and an appeal for an interview with Spacex, I’ve had enough!!! Ffs stick to what we want to hear and stop promoting yourself. I’ve unsubscribed and gone elsewhere. Even when you interview others we don’t get to hear enough of the other guy speaking because Doctor aren’t I fantastic keeps interrupting with “yep yep right yep right
right yep”. Just shut tf up and let us hear the guy you are interviewing who clearly knows a lot more than this guy does.

How do neural networks avoid over fitting?

Is HW3 2x36TOPS going to be able to run the next compressed model with 5x parameters count or shall we expect HW3 to be stuck at V12.4 and HW4 to take over from this point. I was expecting this to happen but more around November once the 80000 H100 will be put in production.

Incredible performance by you and your incredible brain big guy!
Please keep it coming!

It seems to me that you and Elon are telling us there will be a generation of cars with the older computers in them and their FSD performance will demand a set of training practices significantly different from the most modern cars and computers. This is an aspect of FSD that I wondered about already -- how many different 'flavors' of training will there be for each version? Each of the left-hand versus right-hand flavors, another flavor for each major human language group, now maybe another flavor for each generation of Teslas. This seems way too complicated, but it is also not much more than Microsoft has to do for each new release of Windows. Where am I bonkers on this? Maybe all Tesla vehicles will understand all the major languages? That could simplify a lot, as well as pave the way for a fantastic Grok vocal interface.

Drunk beginner driver. Being on the freeway where the speed limit is 70/hr. and FSD sees the minimum speed limit at 40 m/hr. drops down to 40 on the freeway.

Everyone who is complaining re:FSD 12.x.x - Checkout Omar driving Model S with latest FSD @Whole Mars Catalog and judge for yourself...

Glad you all made it back home after ordeal that you went through with the Bolt. Don't you love Mary Barra now?

I got a 150K mortgage, bought 75k worth of Brett with it. YOLO from profit of 10k thanks a lot Sonia campbell

I think about the path of FSD development as a story with every roadblock being another chapter in the book.

It will be fascinating to look back at the entire journey once FSD reaches robotaxi readiness.

No thanks, I'll drive my own car.

Got my new model 3 LR Friday (Sweden), delivered with software 11. Maaany false positives regarding speed warnings. Got a software update to SW 12 on friday evening, big improvement regarding the speed DB, most of the false positives gone, but driving saturday with SW 12 Autopilot (beta) panic braking at 90 km/h two times in a day for no apparent reason. Almost gave me heart attacks two times franticly trying to understand why the car went panic braking BEEP! BEEP! BEEP! BEEP! at speed with no traffic around. Not driving with Autopilot (beta) any more! Manual steering with adaptive cruise control works fine, I love the car.

Road speed database a lot better with SW 12 compared to SW 11, but still many false positives, imagined speed changes when there are none.

To summarize: can't use Auto Pilot in Sweden, and ignore the speed warnings, turn the sound off and just drive. You can drive on a 90 km/h highway eastward and the speed warning says it is 90, but when you turn around and drive back westward on the same piece of highway the alarm bells goes off saying the speed limit is now 80 km/h on the same piece of highway going the opposite direction.

The EU says it is law to use it, but it gives so many false positives that you just give up and doesn't give at s**t. Ignore it, turn the warning sound off and absolutely don't use Autopilot - you will get rear ended when the car panic brakes for no reason in high traffic.

Cant wait for them to unlock true FSD so the car will function ok. As it stands now in Sweden? Model 3 Highland is a brilliant car, but to be fair, my 2013 Ford Focus has better driver ergonomics, I don't know why Tesla omitted the blinker stalks, the blinker buttons are nice as long as you don't drive in round abouts. I have driven in certainly ten of them today, and going 1/4 around works fine going right directly, even 1/2 way trough is ok, but going 3/4 around? Just fu*k it, drive out without blinking because you are staring at the steering wheel trying to find and press the right blinker button not paying attention to the road! I am sorry, but Tesla fu*ked up when they removed the blinker stalk.

And don't say FSD will take care of it, if that where the case, why sell the cars with steering wheels at all?

What am I teaching FSD when I drive through round abouts with no turning stalk? I am teaching FSD to turn blinker right when going through 1/4 and 1/2 trough, and when going 3/4 through a round about I am teaching FSD to either indicate right turn or left turn, or not to indicate at all. Going through 3/4 of a round about is a random thing really.

It was unclear from elon's comment whether or not HW3 Would run these new models. Tesla's engineers are pretty good so they might find a solution. It will be interesting to see if the software line bifurcates into HW3 and HW4. This is not taking into account HW4's better cameras. Which in my view will be necessary for higher speeds. It drives like a teenager only looking right in front of the car instead of a more experienced driver who looks down the road inorder to give themselves time to make a good decision.

If you bought FSD, Tesla must upgrade your hardware for free to the version that is capable of autonomous driving. We've seen these updates from HW 2.5 to 3 already. So Tesla will be interested in offering their old HW customers FSD transfers to a newer model in the future.

OK, I'm going to ask the same question again
so far nobody has answered
this is your big chance!

FSD Level-4 autonomous software is at least 5 years away by my guess
the dozen or so items FSD fails at have not been fixed in 2 years so 5 more might do it

But let's say FSD is "Ready"
now what?
That's my question that nobody has ever replied to me
Now what?

Can I fiddle with my iPhone while FSD drives me to work?
Can I watch a movie?
Can I sleep?
Can I read the WSJ?

The answers are all NO - hundreds of laws need to now be changed
Hundreds of traffic laws need to be passed in all 50 states
police officers need to be trained to not stop Tesla's with FSD engaged (How do they know?)
Courts and DAs and Judges need to be retrained

So what did my $10,000 get me then?
Nothing as far as I can see?
Anybody go the answers?

As to insight, my contribution on that level is nil or close to it. But I did gain one from your and Elon's comments: I'm going to trade up to HW4 or more likely AI5. May take another year but that's fine, more time to save my pennies 😎.

A little math diversion: At the basic level, every simple operation like add, subtract, multiply, divide can be reduced to variations on addition. Subtraction is reiterated addition of negative one, multiply is reiterated addition, divide is reiterated subtraction. Even exponentiation is just accelerated addition. Ok, back to the topic.

I like to drive w/o some machine in control. Color me old fashioned and accident averse.

Regression before progression.
Do your research, invest in Tesla.

It's going to be so satisfying to watch a Chinese car company beat Elon to the fully autonomous car "finish line". LOL

Would it be feasible to upgrade HW3 inference processors in older vehicles without having to upgrade all cameras, etc.?

😊👍

Enjoy your trip and hope you get some response on your coffee visit! The future is coming faster than most realize!

Thank you, Dr. KNOW IT ALL! Appreciate the information!!!

Do we know how many parameters FSD has roughly ? Also HW3 has two FSD chips, originally it was for fail safe, but I believe both chips are being utilised as the compute load has increased. Is that true ?

I will be checking for a note here regularly throughout the day.

We could meet at Starbucks on Rosecrans or Trader Joe’s, let me know a time and I will be there! Best, Peter

I would Love to meet and discuss things with you. How do we meet up? I’m in Hollyglen by Manhattan Beach.

About 6 weeks ago, Elon said that 12.4 and 12.5 will each have a decrease of 5 to 10 in disengagements by the end of June. That amounts to 25 to 100 improvement by the end of June. Elon has been feeding us a line of bull for the last 8 years with regards to FSD. It's always something new to keep the hype. Well I stopped believing his rhetoric. You can see on FSD Tracker, the improvement has been pretty well non existent. 12.3.6 has 111 city miles driven to critical disengagements. Waymo has over 17,000 miles! Elon has a lot of work to do. I am not sure vision architecture is the answer. You guys keep pumping the stock, and quite frankly it's getting embarrassing. Keep flooding us with PHd rhetoric, maybe enough investors will believe it and keep the stock afloat.

Mrkia Will hardware 4 be updatable to h5, h6…?

👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻✌🏻

The current FSD version sounds like it's suffering from PTSD and hyper-vigilance, jumping at every sound, always scanning the crowd, always scouting the building for the exits...

Seems that simple LLM capability to read signs and distinguish which require action of FSD could simplify at least this aspect of driving... and the corresponding NN workload. A huge fraction of signage is eye pollution, especially in The US, and can be ignored. Also, the basic straight and normal part of driving should be set-and-forget instead of relearned at each new version. Much to learn about training NNs...

I have always wondered why my Tesla seems to go backwards in progress with various updates, (i.e. it used to have speed limits down almost perfectly and now it does a terrible job at obeying speed limits). This zig-zag and up and down in the performance of the FSD is directly related to what you described here. Thanks for the great clarification and explanation. I hope that Tesla engineers can figure out a feasible way to improve Hardware 3 computers by adding on a component that will allow it to perform and run nearly as efficiently as Hardware 4. It sure is an exciting time in the evolution of FSD.

15 minutes for 3 sentences of new information - you're usually more concise.

I feel like what you are saying (in a nutshell) is that the vehicle/computer will be able to see better?

🙋‍♂️THANKS DR.🤗 NO INSIGHTS, BUT I THINK 🤔 I UNDERSTAND A LITTLE BIT MORE 💚💚💚