House Prices Decline, Unemployment Will Rise, 2024 Canadian Real Estate Market.

Nice Charting…excellent justification on house pricing and market predictions.
However I missed the broker/agent commission discount structure offered to buyers to help offset the high cost of a simple home buying transaction. Show us a typical brokerage transaction commission fee for their services VS all costs and fees the lawyers apply to transfer ownership of the property.
Commission for Real Estate transactions never have a economic cycle fluctuation.
Do employment rates include the number of agents leaving what they thought was easy money ?
Again, thank you for a well researched presentation.

Hi.. am i able to ask a quick question. I work in a window door factory.. we are in the middle of a bargaining contract. 3 yr contract. Even though its slow now, im under the impression the housing market will get busier within the next 3 years.. what is a reasonable wage increase based in housing economy getting busier and when would you predict it will.. thank you

Hopefully start of the train wreck and a full wash out in 2 yrs. then start anew. Long time coming since 2015 at least ?

Always enjoy the videos Jon. Having watched many videos on Canadian real estate over the last few years I’m coming to a realization that massive price drops will not happen. Jon as I review some of your older videos I think you would also agree that the declines are unlikely to be as drastic as once you predicted back in early 2023. Here is why, high immigration, most are renting driving rents sky high. If house prices drop and the numbers make sense investors will jump in muting lower prices. Approx 45-50% of homes in Canada are debt free, don’t expect for sale signs. Unemployment rate - considered low when compared to historical

You literally use falling house sales > 1M as a sign of lack of income. Then immediately use falling house sales < 1M as rationalized that house prices rose. You should go read up on logical fallacies as you just committed about 7 of them in the first 3 minutes of this video.

Excellent charts and data. Great work putting it together!

Did you check new builders prices in Oakville,Milton and overall in Halton? Yes the resales are lower 200-300k but new ones are very close to the pick in 2022.

good content. I have subscribed thank you

In Vancouver anything under 1.5 - 2 million is still selling. There is absolutely nothing available to buy and if it is reasonably priced it is sold almost right away. These charts you are showing mean absolutely nothing because Canada has never really been in a situation like the one we are in now with the massive housing shortage. Housing starts are going down sharply and the population has increased by over 5% in the last 2 years alone. We need to be building 500K units a year to keep up with immigration and to solve the current housing shortage and we will build maybe 200K in 2024 this year. Once the rates drop the market will rebound again and if you think real estate is expensive now wait another decade. It will be at least double what it is today.

Are you known to the real estate strategy. If the bank of canda interest come down the house prices goes up.

I want a decline in the market but I feel like this spring is going to be a free-for-all. People are fed up waiting for prices to drop. They're just going to jump in. I don't see the mass layoffs. There have been some layoffs but nothing crazy that would warrant interest rate cuts. The soft landing that the US is talking about and I'm sure Tiff would love to make happen, might just happen. I don't think Tiff's concern is bringing the housing market back to reality. I think his concern is just getting to 2%. Everybody is terminating listings. Stock is drying up is because they know lower interest rates are coming, some may try to ride it out and forget about selling others might terminate and re list it later this year when rates drop hoping to get top dollar again like 2020.

Buy now while you can. When they lower rates in June of 2024 you will see a Rush (not the band) to the door. Get ready for large price increase the last half of 2024.

Jon what is your prediction for 2024 home prices will fall or rise?

Canada's so broke, we can't afford to celebrate New Year

1955 prices are coming 👏👏👏🥳🎉💜☝️☝️☝️

Home prices will make new highs by October 2024 and rents will rival rents in Hong Kong. Looking for a 10 to 12 percent increase in home prices in 2024 and another 15 percent increase in 2025.

this time is different because the government told the banks to not foreclose and to extend amortizations to infinity. Unfortunately for the banks they listened to a financially illiterate government

Your advertisements are very annoying

Real estate big thift in Canada
Bullied the house owner

So for sure this is the year prices crash? You said 2023 was the year last year. If it doesn't happen in 2024 then 2025 will be the year right?

You're correct Jon, Tiff should have started raising rates 3 years ago and probably knew that and wanted to, however, I suspect he can't make a move without Powell's consent, which was a huge sacrifice to our Canadian real estate economy.

Thank you so much for a very detailed video... Love it....

Then why this news media and the real estate firms are fooling the people that "Market is going to go high. Jump now. jump now... like that...."... very stressfull

What’s your rationale on home prices falling when BoC cuts rates?

That contradicts the normal relationship between price & interest rate.

Just interested to hear your reasoning here. Thanks.

Ok here is something I learned yesterday.
We know a couple whom live a few hours north of Victoria. A few years ago they thought it was a good idea/investment to buy a condo in an Air B&B approved building.
They paid 654,000$ (give or take)
Today the condo is assessed at 540,000$ (give or take)
Other similar condos in this building are for sale for approx 450,000$ (again give or take)
Not one condo in that building has sold since June. They are completely at a lose as to what to do. They have to pay the B&B license for the year and yet can only operate their air B&B until I believe March. (That could be off by a few months)
It’s sad, it’s interesting, and yet it may open up opportunity for young people to get into the market. Stay tuned for what’s to come, more the same?

Bc is booming with good jobs.

The recent surge in the U.S. housing market, marked by home builders liquidating their stock and a significant increase in new homes for sale, indicates a potential shift in market dynamics. This situation, highlighted by a 12.2% drop in new home sales and a decrease in median sales prices to $434,700, coupled with a substantial rise in housing inventory, suggests a possible cooling off in the real estate market. This development could impact financial investments in real estate, presenting both opportunities and risks, and underscores the importance of diversification, such as considering cryptocurrencies, which offer liquidity and a different risk profile compared to traditional markets like real estate...Amidst this, the insights of a knowledgeable guide like that of Linda Wilburn can be crucial. Her expertise in navigating the nuances of trading has been the key for Me understanding and making the most of these emerging financial trends.

It's happening AS WE SPEAK. The collapse is underway. Doesn't look like it will be too bad.....time will tell. I expect bottom in my area fall 2024.

You should have compared 1978-1987 recession,,,,you know, when teudeau 1.0 did the same as trudeau 2.0

Interest rates went to 20% and unemployment went to 13%

Your comparisons are not actual comparisons on the current situation.

Everyone has been saying that with interest rates coming back down that housing prices will go back up. Based on your charts it seems if history were to repeat itself, housing prices will come down. Is it possible the prices will go back up for a little bit as you said there is a bit of a lag? I am trying to determine if I should pull the trigger and sell a rental property for a decent price while I still can. @jonflynn

😅immigration is frauding our welfare system. Too many people with the same name. Infiltrating our banks and giving out loans to those on welfare and working as cleaning ladies. Also the SERVICE CANADA Takes 1 person with 6 names and sends out 6 cheques. Oh if they borrow a baby then they get more money. No checking no cross referencing. Happening right here on my street.
Happy New Year!

I think your charts about the number of homes selling above $1 million would be more helpful if they were as a percentage of the number of homes sold. You're comparing record years of sales to the lowest in 10-15-20 years.

The percentage would most certainly be lower comparing 2023 to 2022, maybe 2021, but it's not really a useful metric.

Thanks Jon, really appreciate your efforts here. I am first time home buyer currently in market looking for detached home in GTA. Still not getting a good house with in my budget but I get the strength and patience listening to you week after week. I believe because of this very useful information you provide, I have not made any stupid decision of buying such house where I need to compromise either financially or with any feature of the home.

I'm quite surprised because I know several blue collar friends/families that are still spending like it's 2015. I can't wait to see this deck of cards fall......

Nice charts! Please shed some light on the causality of the relationship between unemployment, BoC rate, and housing prices.

The two-bedroom, one-bathroom bungalow, located at 2696 9th Line
In Innisfil Ontario. Listed for $950k
Sold for $550. It's already starting

Great video Jon. Appreciate your efforts

I guess we will see i just saw the Ottawa sales for Dec 23 and well 4 bedroom homes are still 900k median price.. we keep hearing about a crash.. so is it this year?

Happy New Year, Jon. Many Thanks for all your great contents...!!!

Toronto is the saddest city in the world during Christmas. They are so stupid that they lock all the churches in town. Such a dumb country in fact.

2024 IS no JOKE, what is Jon is saying the absolute true, lots of pain ahead. I am seeing this from GROUND ZERO. I work in a downtown commercial tower. The government usually occupies 2 floor in this building, now they move everyone and sequeezed everyone in a single floor. When too many people on one side (ie RE) of a ship it will flip over and it will sink. The smart one is always the one getting out early when they see this coming. You can see this yourself, the condo market is collapsing as we speak. Early in 2023, people would laugh at me when I say the condo will collapsing, guess I had the last laugh. ha ha... ha.. ha..

Excellent research once again, Jon.

TIME TO RETURN ALL MORTGAGES, NOW.

Yea Jon, fake news. Realtors still on the free scamming mode. They still tell how to get your money. Market has to fall 700% to be real.

Very good data driven presentation. I enjoy your content a lot. A very different tone that what's out there already. Unfortunaly I have a feeling the BOC or the FED will do whatever they can to save the day no matter what happens. Printing money is the ultimate solution to any problem they may face so they can save their faces and continue to push the can down the road forever and keep the market super volatile for traders. Changing the usual cycles as we've known them in the past and keeping artificial growth going until another kind of crisis we've never experienced before. Let's just consider the amount of "new" derivative products out there that we can't mesure precisely and imagine the pressure on Powells shoulders in case they do nothing once the economy will down turn. Possibly what made him dovish the other day. Thoughts?

This is going to be a very tricky year. With the Fed saying there's 3 int rate cuts coming we might see a crazy real estate market but the Fed announced this because they've seen something break. Probably the GDI numbers have completely detached from GDP.

I'm so dismayed by the way the gov't has dealt with real estate for 15 yrs. In fact, since we bought in early 2003 real estate has been wildly spiking. I feel sorry for anybody having to buy now.

The shocking part of all of this gov't intervention in the real estate sector is they've created a warped mindset in homebuyers. Everybody is convinced that prices will skyrocket any moment. It's scary. Will it break this year? I hope.

Not missing the fireworks I gotta say. I have horses and dogs that are terrified. When I spoke with a neighbour I was told they can't afford them anymore. Apparently, fireworks are expensive now. No way!!

They don't want you happy that's why they're cancelling everything here. They want you as grey as the constant Ontario skies. 😮

Awesome video and I thank you for breaking it down in this 2024!! Despite the economic recession in 2023, I'm so happy 😊I was and have been earning $24,000 returns from my $5,000 investment on short period.

Thanks Jon! I echo your sentiments exactly. It's great that you point out which economists have vested interests in sugarcoating the truth. Rosenberg is not always well liked by his contemporaries, but he is often right. Rare is the economist who has his kind of freedom of speech.

Jon, aren't most ppl in Real Estate saying as soon as rates begin to drop, FOMO will kick in, bidding wars will go crazy once again, and home prices will hit all time highs?