Analysis: How Jannik Sinner Beat Djokovic to Make AO Final

Djokovic fans can be a pretty unhinged lot.

Congratulations!
Your prediction was spot on.
You also rightly pointed out two main, interrelated, reasons why Djokovic lost far easier than expected – Sinner’s quality and Djokovic’s lack of motivation. Whenever Djokovic’s returns are subpar, it is a sign of injury or lack of motivation.
Of three matches they played last year, only the last one is really important. Djokovic was very motivated, was the better player, had Sinner under pressure the whole third set, had 5:4, 40:0 on Sinner’s service and then lost playing the last points of the third set very poorly. He never lost a match from similar position. Clearly it left a scar, but it was not clear that the scar was so deep until yesterday. In the first two sets, Djokovic continued to play as poorly as he did in the last 10 points of the match in Davis Cup.
Djokovic has not become GOAT by running away from adversities, but by overcoming them. Yesterday, he did not have guts to do the same. Sinner is in top form and started match accordingly, some other factors like wind, sun and, due to pre-tournament injury, average form by Djokovic contributed to that. Two first sets Novak was atrocious and are of little importance for analysis.
However, the third set is far more important. Novak’s level was average, below the best, but by no means poor, still NOT GOOD ENOUGH. Djokovic found a way to steal the set, but at the end it was inconsequential. Sinner kept his composure; his level went up a fraction in the fourth set and Novak lost it easily. In a way, what we saw in the fourth set above all the fact that Sinner won 69% of his SECOND SERVE points, is the best summary of their comparative strength at the moment.
Certainly, Novak can play better, but time is not working for him.

Chokevic.

Nole was not at his best. Alcaraz has not been at his best for a while now. But I think Jannik is better then Danil by now. Not sure if Jannik is better than Sasha but Sasha has shown he can be failed by the pressure he puts onto himself. As you are saying Jannik does not crack while he is fighting as big as he used to do and that is why he can get to the top of the ranking during 2024

The prediction Goat? !

Jannik said something was wrong with Novak, no movement, errors, no focus.

Champions rise to the occasion, and Novak was not a champion that night. Sinner did what others don’t do, and thank gosh we can see other players believing in their game and making Novak realize who he’s playing. Amazing from Sinner, and yet I was sure he wasn’t going to miss

He was not motivated. They say it’s hard when you’ve won everything.

Sinner is doing to Djokovic what Djokovic did to both Nadal and Federer.
Sinner represents the start of a new era.
He will become the man to beat.

Remember when Alcaraz beat Djokovic in Wimbledon??? Wow.. Will have the same with Sinner..... Wait for Nole in Wimbledon and after, he will get more hungry.....lol.

Great prediction. I didn't see it. I'm not knocking Sinners accomplishment and am no fan of Djokovic. But I felt he lost the match over Sinner winning it. It's the worst I have ever seen Novak play in a grand slam. The errors! Still after the 3rd set tie break, I commend Sinner for staying calm. I believe Djokovic success, has in part been because for such a lengthy period, he never faced world class players who were younger than him. Now with Alcaraz definately and potentially Sinner being world class. it's a different time. Thank the gods. Djokovic has so much success. But his style of play always turns the fans off.

Sinner is playing his best tennis but Nole’s 😮serve, returns , forehand??? all were not there 🤭what happens. Shocking

"From trophy to platform", eh? You mean Sinner has shifted from platform back to pinpoint serve. It is easy to see he is after the critical extra pop in his first serve and by the same token hastening his serve rhythm thus rendering it to a fast paced 'lightning bolt serve' along the lines of Kyrgios' masterpiece which they (his team and Darren Cahill especially) obviously have used as the primary model in the transformation process. It has its pros and cons, cons pertaining mainly to lessened precision and weakened top spin/kick potential - things Sinner has managed to minimize as we speak. But as a lanky, relatively tall dude with relatively long extremities it might be the best way to keep those clumsy looking mantis legs and arms in check, that is, in a non-stop motion to maximize their explosive potential (stretch-shorten cycle). Anyway, well done, Jannik. Congrats and so on. But the work is not yet done and dealt with. Meddy is a blood-thirsty praying mantis himself and a cunning and scheming one with a frantically firing cortical brain of a chess grand master married with the primitive limbic system of an ancient amoral apex predator! We can only - pray, hope, believe and cheer for you! Okay. Just do it and don't be a frigging pussy! Wink wink.

Looking forward to your finals prediction

Sinner was in his head, because he knew he could be beaten, he just beat him back to back, I picked Sinner to win the whole thing, it time Novak has dominated for years, all good things don't last forever. Well Done Sinner. NOVAK IS STILL THE BEST.

you predicted it and got it right

I don’t even like Nole, but let be real here and look at this objectively. Nole played the whole match like he was dropping a deuce! His BH was terrible and his return was non-existent. Does this make Sinner’s win impressive? Absolutely not! He had a cakewalk draw and lost to a lacklustre Djokovic. Sinner fans need to chill. A win is a win I’ll give you that. But let’s be real about the calibre of Sinners performances. With that said Go Meddy! Hope he takes his second GS on Sunday!

Against Fritz he wasn't hitting the ball like Djoker does. Those 2 double faults back to back spelled doom for Novack. If the nerves in the wrist are compromised you will see less power, even if you try flexing you won't get that power back until you rest. Djokovic has been resting and has thew best therapy money can buy. So, time is the enemy for older athletes in many ways. Time between games, between tournaments. How do you recover, and how long does that last? Is the injury back after a couple of rounds or is it back after a couple of strokes?

Djoko wanted to win a Golden Calendar Slam . Alas

You didn't call any thing it was just a matter of time before the body can't do it anymore, he will not win another major. I'm not a fan of his hollier than thou attitude but he maybe the greatest men tennis player ever...............

0 break point. Sinner Champion 🏆

This didn't look like Novak, we're looking forward to see his best on next big tournament.

You are the type of guy who better goes never to a bar. Your face is perfect for that...

I got so many negative comments from Djokovic fans when I said Novak will not win AO it was unbelievable. Sorry but he cannot win every slam
Also, he (the koker) is too cocky....Happy for Sinner ❤

LUCKY PREDICTION

Percentages don't explain why Sinner won against Djokovic at all. That's the outcome, not the reason. What explains his success is the adjustments and improvements that Sinner made for this match: the best in his career.
He is hitting the ball hard and very, very low. This feature alone took a lot of work for Nole to compensate for.

Yesterday I laughed at you but today I congratulate you on your prediction.

You showed your vanity in today's show, you crossed the line by imitating what Novak's fans write. I still think that Novak is a better prediction, because the odds on Novak were 1.50, Sinner was 2.60. If you continue like this, you will lose the support of Novaks fans, or they will constantly troll you. No normal person asks you to be a Novak fan, but it's stupid if you do some analysis of tennis to be bias.

YES, you called it!!!

My man couldn't wait for Djokovic to lose and post it. You are pure garbage analyst ❤

You called it? I missed the video, very ballsy! Hat’s off man!

Santa clause Djokovic

Im a Djokovic fan ,he was really passive and played really bad

Sinner played very well, but Djokovic, firstly, played poorly, and secondly, he is almost 37 years old. Every domination ends someday. With Djokovic in his good form from 2011, Sinner would not have won even a set here.

Stephen, you are proved Right🎉..Sinner has really Improved and has round game

It is important to note that Sinner won this match because he was a better player, Djokovic played well after the first 2 sets and actually had more winners that Sinner did.

I think some Djokovic fans should chill and learn to be more humble and respectful (Nole himself wouldn't approve of this attitude). Maybe this semifinal taught them a lesson. I know that he was attacked by some vicious and disgusting people during the whole Covid thing, and I guess that part of this constant "aggressive defense" by his fans comes from that, but it's ridiculous to be outraged at the mere suggestion that Djokovic could lose against a rising star like Sinner. Also, you've gotta accept that nothing lasts forever.

grazie carota boy

I said zero

zero break points

Brother with all due respects The age gap between Federer and Novak is just 6 years and Nadal who is an year older than Nole according to some was Feds biggest rival (although both of them were equally his biggest rivals)...Federer was great in his late 30s just that Nole and Nadal were slightly better....u may not agree with me on that one but that's not the point...Sinner is 14 yrs younger and is perhaps stronger and fitter...but atleast as a die hard Nole fan I really appreciate u stating the facts as it is when it came to the match...Sinner was great but Nole was sub par Mediocre...probably the worst match he's played after that FO finals in 2020...anyway Nadal on Clay can do that to anyone....today he was just horrible he never seem to have the belief

“Subpar” 😂 Djokovic was fine.. sinner just owned him

Novak definitely looked deflated & emotionless at times. He has brought so much joy & happiness to his fans all these years. He has achieved everything you can achieve. Age catches up to everyone & like you said these young guys are hungry. I’m excited to see how the rest of the year pans out. If Novak can win a slam this year it will be one heck of an achievement.

Very difficult to analyze because of how poor djoker was a third of sinners points out of the first 90 were from unforced errors from his opponent. Sinners serve and movement were exceptional throughout though , he broke serve like what five times and I don’t remember him playing a great return game , a prime example at 1-2 djoker 40-0 on serve and gets broken three unforced errors and a double fault , sinner really didn’t have to do that much other than be super solid

as you predicted 👌🏾

My 100 years old grandmother could make one good prediction out of hundreds of matches. The dude got one right. After Wimbldon, this is only second time that he got right. What about dozens of mistakes. You dont have tennis knoledge. You are just a sad little boy who cries all the time, but now you got your lollipop. Smile little boy. You have what you allways wanted. Little bit of happyness. Enjoy your moment. Finally. Im so happy for you.

well played sinner almost played the perfect match.. he is in the form of his life ..well deserved finalist ..but ppl writing djokovic off .. mate i heard same non sense last season post wimbledon .end of era,change of guard,passing of the torch . what happened? he won cincinatti ,then us open , then year end atp #1 .just a bad day at the office .. he is human .. wimbledon here we come !!its not the beginning of the end .season has just begun

Stephen Stephen small wiener :)

you prove it that you are acrying hater