18.08.2021: Oil continues to trade flat - (Brent, WTI, USD/RUB, EUR/RUB).

The oil market is trading cautiously as if waiting for more clarity regarding future demand. At the same time, yesterday’s data on retail sales in the US clearly indicates that at least no further decline in demand is expected. Apparently, this was not enough to push the prices higher. Besides, the latest data on GDP growth in the euro area causes concern among investors. It seems that this report has offset the positive effect from the increased consumer activity in the US. Given that no important publications are expected today, the commodities market is likely to stay trading near the current levels. Brent crude has eased the pace of decline. The price made a slight pullback to the upside near the level of 68 dollars 13 cents per barrel. After that, the quote settled near the area of 69 dollars 40 cents per barrel. According to analysts, Brent is likely to trade in the price channel between 69 and 70 dollars. In this case, the best trading strategy will be to wait for a breakout of either of the two boundaries of the channel. Now it is hard to say where the price will move next. WTI crude is following a similar trajectory. The support level is found at 65 dollars 70 cents per barrel, while resistance is located at 67 dollars 80 cents a barrel. This is the point from which the price may pull back in the near future. In general, the oil market is relatively stable. The US dollar index stops oil quotes from further growth as investors flee from high-risk assets. On the foreign exchange, we could witness a sharp drop in the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The greenback benefited from this, thus putting more pressure on crude prices. On Tuesday, the US dollar gained ground amid rising US Treasury yields although there were no obvious reasons for this. Against this backdrop, the ruble depreciated but to a lesser extent than other currencies. In early trade on Wednesday, the ruble recovered to the level of 73.4 against the dollar. Still, the US currency may continue its uptrend against other rivals. However, the ruble may hold steady as it is in high demand at the current levels. Today, the Russian currency is forecast to trade in the range between 73.20 and 73.60 rubles per US dollar. Meanwhile, the euro/ruble pair has tested the support level of 86.00. Notably, the euro continues to fall against the ruble. If the price holds below the mark of 85.70 on the current time frame, the volume of short positions may increase. The ruble keeps trading flat. It is not the first time that its fluctuation range remains quite narrow. For example, yesterday, an import macroeconomic release prompted a rise in the US dollar, still the changes on the ruble were minor. So we can conclude that the ruble will remain relatively stable today as well.

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