Turkey’s Surreal Real Estate Bubble: On Its Last Legs? | Real Turkey

Turkey need to make proper laws for people who may want to come to turkey to invest and set up businesses. I checked its nearly impossible to keep your business afloat if you do not hire 5 people with a minimum salary creating a burden on a newly established business. To make turkey an economic power, the rules that china followed should be implemented. 0 tax for first three years, and licencing every 4 years. The new businesses are very weak in the initial stages but the unnatural rules imposed on that new small business stop people from coming into the country. I am not from Turkey, I am in Dubai, I wanted to come to turkey to invest and start a business in agriculture, I cannot do that because in second year you need 5 people just to get the residence permit. Its impossible to do anything about this. I dont know why the govt cannot see this issue.

Secondly turkey needs to invest or open the market for small entrepreneurs from all over the world to come and establish recycling sector. from plastics to old metals melted to form pure 99.9% metals to be exported. There are so many things that can changed.

Example plastic recycling turning the useless trash plastic into usable plastic pellets that can be exported to china, Vietnam and other manufacturing economies.

China cannot go like japan. Why ? The Plaza accords that US signed with japan was to strangle the economy of japan, as it was growing faster than the USA. Japan was not the factory of the world in 1980's China on the other hand today is the factory of the world. To become self sufficient every economy on this planet need to have a massive de-servicification of their GDP to manufacturing, essentially undo what Margaret Thatcher and Ronald regan shifted to "post industrial" world.
To have that economic state, it take minimum a decade for a country like turkey, Egypt, or Iran - population of 100 million or so.

So please dont fall the the useless financial times from London, which is nothing but banking criminals paradise. They commit frauds and they run to London and a country in middle east - the beacon of light, The hill of light in the sea of darkness, The "only" democracy in the middle east, the self proclaimed chosen people.

Wrong data, wrong facts and biased too

The only thing I can say is the population in the USA ,Britain and Europe are on a steep decline unlike the rest of the world and Africa does have the youngest population demographics.

Excellent 👍🏿👏Thanks.

Turkiye needs to stop foreigners investing on existing property and need to follow countries like Australia who only allow foreigners to buy off the plan which drives the construction but limits price growth that can impact heavily on citizens in being able to buy future property.
If they stop foreign investors in buying existing property will make the prices more reasonable for citizens.

As Turkish I am watching these videos besides non-Turkish experts just to get true information and to get information which is free from "Erdogan influence"... What a pity for my home country...

I think the collapse we’re expecting will affect the whole world and not just turkey. I do understand that turkey has seen a huge increase in real estate prices but thats mainly due to war between russia and ukraine which forced many to go and buy a property in turkey as it is still one of the easiest countries to immigrate to and does not has any sort of minimum figures required for that. People from around the world has invested there.

Thanks

Hocam 15 senedir patlayacak diyon, patladı da, ama götümüzde patladı. İngilazcasını da yazıyım interneşinıl takipçilerin için.
Dude, you are telling this for the last 15 years, it really didn't age well.

Demographics, mate, demographics. Turkey has one of the best demographics for real estate in the entire developed world, Japan and China have two of the worst. 50% of people in Izmir are under 34y old. This is not over until the fat lady sings. Ain't no singing yet that I can hear.

Listening you I learn a little bit about economy and Turkey.
Thanks

Harika analizler. Beyninize sağlık.

If you had any shame you wouldn't be speaking on real estate. Most of us believed you and didn't buy an apartment in expectation for lower prices. Now we face the 5x elevated house prices and will never be able to buy a house again.

Turkey's property bubble has been years in the making. Pre Mr. Erdogan, most Turkish property transactions were conducted in cash, resulting in moderate property prices. On coming to power, twenty years ago, Mr. Erdogan made it a major priority to deregulate the credit market, making it insanely easy to borrow money. An act which triggered a credit explosion, none more so than in the property sector. Mortgages, something relatively new to Turkey then, suddenly became very easy to obtain. Unfortunately, as in the West, this readily available stream of credit resulted in over borrowing, and runaway house prices. The problem has become so acute, much of the population has become completely disenfranchised from property ownership. The problem has also become compounded by a massive influx of "Encouraged" foreign buyers, further adding to the escalation of prices. The truth is, however unpalatable, Turkey, with it's insatiable appetite for credit, and stupid policy decisions, is solely responsible for the position it currently finds itself in. It is therefore completely disingenuous to lay the blame on any other phenomenon, natural or otherwise, for the current state of the Turkish property market.

Mr Yeşilada you are making several grave mistakes in this estimation and comparison.

A) Population is expected to grow in Turkey while in China and Japan, it is declining.

B) In Turkey there is no proper investment other than real estate to preserve wealth. All other types of investments have some handicaps.

C) Mortgage based house purchases are still at 15%. This supports my point in B but more importantly this means that higher interest rates will have limited impact on purchasing dynamics.

D) Turkey lost a huge stockpile of homes in the earthquake which would drive up the prices.

I can believe some stagnation in real terms but I certainly don’t expect a collapse just yet.

Hi Attila, what´s your prediction for EUR and USD vs TRY by the end of the year?

With the big reduction in supply and increased interest rates after the election, wouldn't they offset each other?

Earthquakes created another leg for the Turkish real estate! Yes ? No? Supply and demand dynamics 🤑

I would like to here more on this.

is real estate going up in terms of dollars or lira?

Renters have been getting seriously screwed by Ankara's rent increase allowances in favor of property owners (losing money because of inflation and currency depreciation). Families who were maybe paying 3000TL/month pre-quake, who lost their homes and need to find new housing, are looking at minimum double their former rent costs. It has been very sad to see greed take precedence over compassion for the millions who need to put their lives back together after this tragedy.

One question to you.
The ethnic turks have a low fertility rate while kurds and arabs have a very high fertility rate in Turkey. This means ethnic turks will be a much smaller share of the population in some generations.
Are there any discussions about this in Turkey?.

I thought real estate contribution to Turkey's GDP is closer to 20%. Do you have a source for the 7% you quoted?

Thank you for your efforts...

Good talk.I think it's world wide.Not just Turkey.

If there was no earthquake your bet on housing bubble could be correct.

👍👍👍..