You Will Never Look at the NFL Draft the Same

Bro I just subscribed. You honestly one of the best content creators I have seen. I dont even watch football and I still watched the video from start to finish.

Great video! In depth analysis and top tier production! Instantly hit the subscribe button

Subscribed. Awesome video

Um, the production quality is bonkers. Amazing video!

I slap my face when a team scrambles to draft a QB out of a college like Ohio State. Why pay a premium for a guy that will need a LOT of work to break bad habits developed playing against severely outmatched opponents? Those electric QBs in college vying for a Heisman or National Championship don't develop the skills needed to compete against the top tier defenders.

I want a QB in the second round that spent his college years playing AGAINST Alabama and Ohio State and still looked good. Like, say, Patrick Mahomes.

Other positions, like receivers and offense line are a better early round choice. They're more reliant on raw athleticism to succeed and their performance is better demonstrated in a college scheme.

great video. I have noticed the same thing, and how first round picks are so overvalued an underperformed. typically, I'm more interested in second and third round players

I want the Lions front office to watch this video on a loop every day until the draft. Every year.

I see that your other content is drastically different but you may have found something here with bias in sports. Would love to see more.

Would you have considered the bills trading cordy glenn the 21st and 185th picks to Cincinnati for the 12th and 187th picks and then trading the 12th, 53rd and the 56th picks to the buccaneers for the 7th and 255th picks in the 2017 draft to move up to take their guy josh allen and would you consider that a maybe win

I’d say Wentz and RG3 aren’t fair to include as “bad trades” since they both were shaping up to be exactly what everyone thought they’d be before injury

Loved the video, just one thing that I'd have liked you to add: it's a team sport, so if someone's getting into a good team they are more likely to perform better and those good teams don't have high picks normally (Philly being the most recent exception)

As an Englishman that’s been a NFL fan on & off since the late 80’s I’m up on the game rules, the nuisance & overtime got to know the team’s strengths & weaknesses!! Not that you’d know that as I’m a Colts fan 😱 The draft & its intricacies eluded me for years so it’s vids like yours I’m grateful for expanding my knowledge as we don’t get the media coverage the USA does obviously x thanks dude x

Someone send this to @ThePatMcAfeeShow

How does this dude only have 10k subs!?!?

Wonderfully made!

One point is that later 1st round picks are on better teams. Better teams are more likely to succeed. Teams more likely to succeed are more likely to have players with better performance values

So you can only have so many players on a roster, not to mention more dudes on the field. So even the slight performance increase is worth paying alot more money for

According to Kirko the wide receivers work harder when the KFC has extra flavour

I get some almost v sauce vibes from this video and that’s definitely a compliment.

What about the Eli Manning trade? that worked out for NYG. Going further back the Elway trade worked out for the Denver Broncos.

Just another example of how capitalism ruins everything

I feel teams do not pick players well on average. The last draft was above average slightly, I'd say. But there were a few horrible drafts.

Also, I think there's a synergy aspect that isn't evaluated at all when many picks are traded. You sre simply simultaneously emptying your team a bit, and that makes your team worse off than if you traded for a lesser amount. You are simply betting too much on the averages and not thinking at all on the deviations.

Also, the aspect of them being gms today and having to win today is huge indeed.

The NFL is rigged. They are "drafting" actors.

Carson Wentz would have been amazing if he didn’t keep getting injured against the Rams in week 13

I think this is missing the historical performance evaluation outside of some anecdotal 1st round QBs. You mentioned the next drafted player at the position. Evaluating some metric of performance like position-specific stats or a proxy like career earnings following rookie contract could show how a player performed relative to their draft spot and relative to those of the same position drafted before or after

Eerily representative of life overall. Nice vid 👌

this was really well made!

Great video, thank you! None of the content was shocking to me but you really did present it very nicely!

Cool video. I enjoyed all of it.

I keep hearing this about the Walker trade but I believe the players had to be cut to get the 5 picks if I remember the details correctly.

In the NHL two recent champions the 2020 and 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning and the 2022 Colorado Avalanche both drafted and devolved most of their core players then made a few smart trades and became champions. Espisally, the lighting had multiple players that they found in the later rounds 3rd 4th and later. The Detroit Red Wings in the 90s and early 2000s were really the pioneers of focusing on scouting and finding those really good players after the 1st round.

Nice video but you forgot one point in my opinion. Sure you can get the number one pick for x$ salary or 2 no. ?? picks for x$ salary. In your view it would be a bad trade if the number one pick only slightly outperforms the other 2 picks BUT on a football field there is only room for 11 players. So your comparison from the beginning (1 guy for 200k or 2 for 100k) is not correct in that case

Bro this is just another example of the Pareto distribution..is not that shocking at all,it would be shocking if it didn’t obey it

I think your point on coaches want to win now so they have a job now is the same reason injuries get ignored and guys get pushed to or passed the limit. And it's sad, a coach will trade a players future just to try and win a game tomorrow..

Ok is it fair to call Carson Wentz a bust? I mean he did win a super bowl? He just didn't play that way for long but he still won a super bowl

Trey Lance was left off this list.

I could write an essay on why everything you say in this video is wrong because your math is too simplistic. NFL teams are not trying to create surplus value or players that are worth more than they get paid. That would mean that you would be happy with a 53 UDFAs that are worth about a million dollars more you are paying them. No of course not. NFL teams are first and foremost looking for TALENT not a GOOD DEAL. Yes there is a salary cap so good contracts can make a team successful but the cap is easy to work around if you are willing to make trade offs. The point is that NFL teams need elite players. Name one Super Bowl winning team without a bunch of top 5 players at there position. You cannot build a roster trying to get good deals you need stars that can win you games. Additionally, you failed to mention retention of the players you drafted. If you are good you will almost assuredly resign with your current team. This means that if you took a guy in the top of the first or the last pick in the draft and they played at the same level, in 4 years there compensation would be identical. The advantage is there, but is fleeting. This is why teams want to find high end talent that they can add to roster for decades to come instead of mid round starters that are cheap.

I appreciate the time and effort that went into this video but the math behind it is so flawed.

This is incredible. Great analysis and production value. Thoroughly enjoyed!

Michael, thank you for this video. As a Bears fan, the mis-management of prior drafts were painful. Hopefully better times are ahead (according to football outsiders, not likely, but, hey, at least we have draft capital!).

Also, after watching this fantastic piece of content, I proceeded to watch three more videos on your channel.

As a stepparent my partner and I constantly talk/worry about college affordability, rankings, field of study so thank you for doing some the legwork for us. Your content will definitely help us have better conversations with the kids.

Keep up the great work, Michael. Can’t wait to see what this channel will become!

Subbed.

Given how bad Dan Snyder was as an owner with his choices I bet he sucks at fantasy football too.

you could say that jared trade got the rams a superbowl.

Draft picks in late first round also tend to perform better because they end up on better teams that know how to develop them

Almost Always in life, invest in the future, it’s the right thing

Insanely good work, I hope u blow up

I do not agree with many datapoints in the video, the old cowboy trade table value is out of date and normally not used by teams.
Also it is interesting that you specifically said Trade ups to Top 5 Positions where a QB was drafted. If you just change that to trade ups in to the Top 10 Spots , you would have Josh Allen and PATRICK MAHOMMES as examples.

None of the analysis really accounts for the scarcity of roster spots. This is a glaring error in an otherwise sensible analysis of something annually butchered by NFL experts. Yes having 5 round 2 picks is better value for money within the salary cap but if that comes at the cost of roster spots filled by solid unexceptional starters you will be unlikely to win a superbowl

While this is historically accurate, there are several flaws in this video when discussing current NFL drafts and trends. 1) Teams rarely use the Jimmy Johnson trade chart anymore. 2) The current CBA has lowered the relative compensation of top draft picks. 3) Scouting and analytics have improved massively over time so the value differential has gotten more extreme, especially at premium positions. 4) Teams are realize some of the value issues on trading to a top pick for a non quarterback, so this has become rarer. 5) You are not taking into account the cost differential of a draft pick vs the top payed players at those same positions. That differential is now greatly impacting positions teams draft early to maximize value. 6) Performance is difficult to quantify in the NFL. It has improved with advanced analytics, but it is still far from perfect so no singular performance metric is accurate to use when analyzing draft outcomes.

Overall this is a fun watch but with many flaws about today's NFL.

Even if teams choose to build for the future, if there is a once in a lifetime quarterback that's going #1, there is no logical reason to say, "nah lets not 'go get our guy' and wait an unknown number of years for the next opportunity to draft a potentially transcendent quarterback". No one will do that. Its non-sensical thinking.

Just like there is an opportunity cost to trading up to get your guy, there is an opportunity cost to waiting and holding picks in hopes of finding a diamond in the rough or building a team over time with solid players, especially when the quarterback position is the most important position. Compensation be damned.