I've Changed My Mind, I Think Interest Rates are About to Rise, Here's Why

They will rise. They will be 18 per cent by spring.

Summary: rates go up in September because they do. This is just stupid, sorry.

This was probably the messiest video I seen from you...

Eventually 😂

Large fiscal deficits would mean pressure on inflation. We have seen this time and again in emerging markets . USA would behave like emerging markets till debt comes under control from now on. Keep burning through debt with higher inflation ( fiscal deficit - interest rates ). USD being reserve currency this is base inflationary push 2%+ .

Maybe Christmas orders and money flows.

Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.

Maybe the simple explanation for rates increasing into the end of the year is corporate greed. And somehow I think the curve will uninvert by increasing the long end while not really lowering the short end.

I see no reason not to expect continued disinflation eventually turning into deflation.
Looking at the M2 money supply correlated to the rate of change in the cpi we can see a consistent 12-18 month lag in m2 changes showing up in the cpi prints. We still have a massive second leg down according to the M2 money correlation to cpi.

Inflation is always, ALWAYS a monetary phenomenom- interest rates follow monetary creation with a 23 month lag according to Prof. Hanke, who is best predictor of interest rates I have heard of

Crash?😂 … go long NVDA and see you in Monaco 🤑

One thing is certain: Nobody has a clue what will happen, but it will be painful 😰

This time is different.

Could the September effect have anything to do with the end of the federal governments fiscal year?

What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.

They will feel the need to keep our bonds attractive at auction. Higher interest.

Jeff "Please don't check my history of failure" Snider. Debunked.

Jeff, I’m impressed that you will change your stance and publicly say so. Yes, I suspect that cutting rates will cause stagflation and would be a mistake.

Edit: could the September effect be related to harvest?

Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires

common man; you've been ferriting me to TLT, and then this out of nowhere, why bother?

j/k keep up the good work.

So either that, or ECRI is spot on in their assessment that leading inflation indicators are showing a clear uptrend. So I see that you are rowing in the same direction now.

The “Yield Curve” has been stuck in the inverted position for over 2 years. Yet, the fight on inflation is far, far, far from over. And, the only course is to either let the interest rates float, or, the Fed can continue on its “financial voodoo magic tricks”.. So yes, shimmy left, then right, keep shifting the narrative, creating new scenarios of economic prosperity. failing over, and over, again, and again.. Hopefully, nobody will figure out, the Fed cannot over come a Dysfunctional Economy.. A Globally Synchronized Dysfunctional Economy..

Pretty crazy call Jeff, How could Powell politically survive a interest rate hike?
Anyway, it would be something else if you are right as you would be about the only person saying this.

This should be a good test for the reliability of the September effect. If it happens again this year it’s pretty much a solidified pattern

This economy is so good it can't stomach 5 percent interest rates. Really pathetic.

The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 100k to a decent 432k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks will be appreciated.

In that case guess we will see Bitcoin go to $10k

The price to pay for lower interest rates may be currency devaluation

Worse by the day. The disservice he has done for his viewers over the past few years is contemptible, indefensible, and borderline criminal.

Just a pint but the September effect is possible linked to the additional spending related to school leave and holiday makers increasing credit usage and spending increases associated with holidaying etc??? Don't know but seems a possible contributing factor 🤔

The machine algorithms don't repeat, but they do rhyme.

Great to have the ability to change one's mind :)

I completely agree Jeff!!!! I know exactly the game plan 😁 Baa dee yaa party in September

So consistent but you just now change your mind?

The fed is expected to cut rates on September 18 2024. The rate cuts that led to the 2008 collapse was indeed on September 18 2007.

I hope it gets up to 15%, I'm just going to back up the truck and take that easy money from the government

The second that the fed cuts interest rates inflation will be heading right back up to new all time highs. Low interest rates caused the inflation problem we have been in. So you think the problem will go away once we do the exact same thing that caused it again? People are so stupid and desperate for cheap money to keep their zombie companies afloat and fuel their out of control debt spending.

Ah, the chaotic chart feedback loop. With enough uncertainties and lack of any strong attractors, self-fulfilling prophecies become the norm as any small moves in an expected direction catalyse larger moves in that same direction.  

This year the Fed are trying to telegraph very limited cuts or no cut in rates whatsoever, however now we have wildly competing forces. On one side the Treasury has to finance $2 Trillion in deficit spending and there's the political imperative to support Bidenomics especially when the lower classes are seriously hurting and expect imminent rate relief.  

Then there's the BRICS trade currency deal announcement in September/October which should encourage nations to downsize their Treasury reserves while they can, forcing rates higher irrespective of the Fed. Add Japan into the mix, current geopolitical tensions and that September effect bias - I'd say the probability of higher rates is odds on.

The Fed influences interest rates but the bond market still determines them. Any major dump of US bonds will drop price and raise rates so this is a possible outcome.

Interest is a measure of the trust in repaiment of debt. High trust, low interest. Low trust high interest.

Are we about to see the combined effect of a bear and bull steepener?

I wonder how the war card plays over the next few months?

... When Hume is grossly neglected....

I love my life. I may lose some money, but I am pumped. I am ready. Los geht's

This all seems orchestrated. But this is not the first time this has all happened (about every 50 years? or so). The Dems and RINOs have only themselves to blame. The pidgeons have come home to roost. As the apparently Roman military maxim proclaimed: " .. . no plan survives the first encounter with the enemy." Or, even just a simple observation: "habitually playing with nitroglycerin can eventually become a self-limiting experience." I object to being collateral damage. So thanks for getting the warning out over the past 4 years or so. Much obliged.

The interest in these videos is coming down

People will have to accept reality that we won't ever return to 3%. If sellers must sell, home prices will have to decline, and lower evaluations will follow. I now look towards the stock market to fuel my millionaire goal. Sure I'm not alone in my chain of thoughts.

I see evidence of the opposite however. The Fed is not operating independent of Treas. They have been replacing long term debt with short debt at higher rates. The level at which it has been occurring tells me the Fed is planning to lower rates and KEEP them lower long term. Then later replace that high rate short term debt with low rate long term debt. The 10yr budget planning projections of annual $2T deficits for next 10yrs. Without low borrowing rates the G0v can't keep the lights on. They will lie about inflation and employment data if they have to lower rates and keep rates low long term. Or US defaults on debt, social profile fail. Low rates & high inflation IS the only possibe path forward.