Russians Make A MASSIVE STRATEGIC MISCALCULATION! | RFU News

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Today, there are important updates from the Kursk direction.

Here, the Ukrainian forces started to shorten the frontline in the salient with a controlled withdrawal, while the Russians continued their multi-vector offensive. Russian commanders decided to exploit the opportunity created by the halted American military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine and raise the tempo of their assaults.

It is important to reiterate that the Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region was never about holding territory indefinitely but a calculated move with clear strategic objectives, designed to serve two primary purposes: first, to force the Russians to redeploy critical reserves away from the Donbas front in the east, preventing them from making rapid gains there; and second, to potentially gain leverage in future negotiations by controlling Russian territory.

In recent weeks, Ukraine's ability to turn the tide in the Donbas has demonstrated the effectiveness of the Kursk operation. The initial goal was to force the Russians to shift reserves away from their offensives in eastern Ukraine, particularly around Pokrovsk and Toretsk. Though the Russian commanders attempted to avoid this at first, pulling forces from Kharkiv and Kupiansk instead and even bringing reinforcements from North Korea, it eventually became clear that additional troops were needed to push Ukrainians out of Kursk. One failed Russian counteroffensive after another led to the inevitable, and they ultimately had to sacrifice both their Pokrovsk and Toretsk offensives.

This shift allowed Ukrainian forces to halt Russian advances entirely and, in turn, regain the upper hand in both these directions. In Pokrovsk, Ukrainian troops transitioned from defense to counteroffensive operations, gradually dismantling the Russian western flank that had once threatened to envelop the town. Meanwhile, in Toretsk, Ukraine leveraged its newfound breathing room to launch a series of raids that escalated into a full-blown pincer movement, nearly encircling Russian forces in the town’s northwestern sector. Without the Kursk operation diverting Russian manpower and resources, these Ukrainian gains would have been significantly more complex, if not impossible, to achieve.

The secondary goal, holding Russian territory as leverage in potential negotiations, was ultimately being diminished due to shifting political dynamics. While controlling parts of Kursk oblast would have pressured Russia in any peace talks, shifting US foreign policy and the cutting of intelligence sharing with Ukraine fundamentally altered the equation. While the diplomatic goal has become less relevant in the face of these changes, the first, of diverting forces away from Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine, has been a resounding success.

At the same time, battlefield realities are making a prolonged Ukrainian presence in Kursk increasingly untenable. Russian forces gained several tactical and operational advantages, threatening the overall sustainability of the salient as they established fire control over key Ukrainian supply routes. Malaya Loknya lost its primary supply route due to Russian shelling, and with Russians moving into Lebedevka in the south, Ukrainian resupply efforts became even riskier. The road from Sumy to Sudzha, already targeted by Russian fiber-optic drones, became even more exposed as the Ukrainian-controlled corridor in Kursk shrank to just 20 kilometers, making it increasingly difficult to maneuver and resupply frontline forces. Additionally, the lack of foliage meant Ukrainians could not station armored quick response units close to the frontline to counter dangerous Russian advances, like we saw in the fall of last year.

Given these challenges, a strategic withdrawal to more defensible positions became the logical course of action, and the Ukrainian forces began a deliberate and controlled withdrawal from some positions, recognizing the risks of holding an increasingly vulnerable salient. Interestingly, the timing of this withdrawal correlates closely with the suspension of US intelligence sharing—something Russia quickly moved to exploit. Russian commanders, realizing Ukrainians had already pulled back from Pogrebki, launched a series of attacks in an attempt to encircle and cut off as many Ukrainian troops as possible.

One of these attempts was a failed infiltration operation in Sudzha, where Russian forces tried to land behind Ukrainian positions by crawling 15 kilometers through an LNG pipeline. Initially, Russian state media hurried to announce the operation’s success. However, as more information surfaced, it became clear that the infiltrators had been tracked by Ukrainian drones, ambushed, and destroyed almost immediately, with Russian sources reporting that the survivors later suffocated due to the toxic fumes.

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