What is xG? | By The Numbers

I really wish it had been named CQ (chance quality) rather than XG. I've talked to several (usually older fans) who dislike XG and a large part of it seems to be the name "expected goals". Many are sadly unable to get past the implication that goals are in anyway expected.

Xg* Pg (for a particular striker) = real Xg

An imaginary stat 📊

Perfect exlpenation. Thanks so much

and what a useless factor

I have a question. Can someone help? Let’s say Messi scores 10 Goals but has a xG of 5. Does it mean he was lucky? Does it mean hes really good because he scores against the odds? Or let’s say his xG is 15. Is he unlucky in that case? But a higher xG would be good because even though someone is underperforming it means that over time it is expected for him to score more often or not? So what exactly is good or bad regarding xG?

Wow I actually understood that malarkey. Well done

if Xg is a number between 0 and 1 how can a team get an Xg of over 1

After Romelo Lukaku's poor performance in the world cup, I'm sure he's now an amateur striker.😭

Back when Lukaku was considered an elite striker

Your model is useless, if it cannot predict anything or contribute to that. Any model, any statistic, any figure.
xG is an offensive metric. So a corresponding defensive one would be needed on top of that.

So if I understand correctly then higher xg mean you have good midfield and playmaker and if you score more goals then your xg it mean you strikers did great job

So boring.

Never forget Alex Stewart

back in the time when Lukaku and Sanchez scored more than expected :D

Fascinating and clearly explained. Interesting that a player who was just good at getting in good positions and scoring a lot of close range goals perhaps wouldn’t have their ability reflected in goals to xG ratio?

Thank you for this explanation! I've always known what it meant. What I didn't get was the actual number used. You've cleared that up.

So an xG of 1.0 doesn't exist and then Liverpool had an xG of 2.3? I am confused...

xG ìs not a real thing. Hope this helps.

Wait, if an xG of 1 is impossible, how did Liverpool had 2.31??

There is an error - xG is the probability of the goal, and not the likelihood of the goal. It's the likelihood of the shot.

P(Goal | Shot) = L(Shot | Goal)

FIFA 22 brought me here

Confused by chrismd story so am here

Well if you watched Football u understand who is better player or which player is better so this is just a useless stat made just so stats guy look smart absolutely useless

Absolutely outstanding video.

Can anyone please help me understand how is xG(probability) greater than 1 for the Liverpool vs Swansea example ?

( how can the probability of any event be greater 100% ?)

Sheffield United's xG this season (12.03) is higher than Southampton's (10.93)

Sheffield United have scored 4 compared to Southampton's 19

It’s none of the things above.
It’s just another bit of effort to convince American Networks that the game just make sense for American public just like VAR (Americanized) and make pundits look like they know what they’re talking about.
Be ready for 4 quarter games, Time outs, challenges by the managers, repeated plays prior to a foul and most importantly a non-continuous game clock so that commercials can be inserted.
The big clubs, the networks and FIFA are slowly killing the simplest and the most beautiful game in the world just to sell their product to the US market (and don’t get me wrong, American public is just bystanders here)

FM21 players. Hello.

Who came here after FM21 added xG?

If xG is a probability or "chance quality" then why are the quoted numbers greater than 1?

I thought I was going to miss Joe's voice,..Alex's explanation overwhelmed any tonal need

this is soccer not football

Do penalties get accounted for in this xG?

What about the goalkeeper? If XG does not account for the goalkeeper then it is misleading. If the keeper is Courrtois, the XG will be higher.

goals per chance?

Therefore if the goals and xG doesn't match up, you can say the keeper did better than expected or the strikers did worse than expected, right?

It has really helped my fantasy football because I do not pay heed to it, and others take it as gospel. I look at body lanaguage and the manner in which that person hits the ball when they have a shot. Xg does not tell you that!

you should picture of messi and then talked about lukaku . lol.

Expected goal analysis is probably the worst model to analyse a player/team.

I find it very useful regarding predicting matches. I quite don't get why it shouldn't be. Especially if you look closely on the xG's without penalties and own goals and the difference in home or away performances.

But I always see people say that player x is better than player y because he has a better expected goals i hope i get an explanation

Football for dummies ! The best football channel for me!

Its because xg = bollocks

Great simple and informative video on XG, as well as the things it does and does not do.

its pretty similar to shot conversion rate stat, both show how efficiant/inefficient a player is, or if you take the stat for all players of team, how efficiant/ inefficient a team is

Its definitely interesting. I can imagine clubs already plot xG in a normal distribution plot when looking at players. Harry Kane to the very right of the bell curve in the premier league - for example.

I recently plotted possession vs. xG against non top 6 teams for Liverpool as from the eye it looks they struggle breaking down buses. The plot confirmed the theory nicely.

who's winning the world cup

Finally I understand xg. Thanks pal!